- Henry Daly horse must be backed at Exeter
- Pileon is worth small stakes too
- Espion Du Chenet gets the nod at Down Royal
Sadly, it has got to the stage where ITV Racing may start asking courses not to put novices' chases on their likely running order.
I know it is probably unfair to single out these races when we are struggling for numbers across the board but they occasionally fail to attract even eight runners at the five-day stage.
The 22k novices' chase at 14:25 at Exeter on Friday has been reduced from seven to three at the overnight stage.
Don't get me wrong, it features three good horses - and in the shape of the 161-rated hurdler Thyme Hill a very good one - and not every race needs to be betting-focused, but these contests leave me cold, and I imagine the majority of punters and viewers, too.
Anyway, let's try to dig out a bet or two.
Or three, in fact.
Bonnie bet in wide-open race
The ITV action at Exeter opens up with a 16-runner mares' handicap hurdle at 13:50. Thankfully, the course has had a fair bit of rain this week and we are likely to get ground on the easy side of good come Friday.
Clearly, it's a wide-open handicap and there is no shortage of plausible winners - last year's winner Martha Brae (I was surprised when she was chalked up at 12s in a place early on Wednesday), Flying Nun, Russian Rumour, a very fair 20s poke, to name just three.
But I am going to throw a few quid on a fourth that caught my eye at these weights.
She was available at 14s early on Thursday afternoon, which really interested me, so the Betfair Sportsbook's 16/1 about Bonnie Bresil has to be a bet.
In fact, 10/1+ would be fine for me.
The Henry Daly yard is chugging along at its usual mundane strike rate of around 11pc this season (it is normally a bit better than that, to be fair) but I think he has an interesting mare on his hands in the shape of the 5yo Bonnie Bresil.
She hinted at better to come than perhaps her beaten distances would suggest in all three of her starts last season, each over 2m, most obviously when fourth at Ludlow in March, a race in which she stuck on well in the closing stages.
A mark of 93 looks fair enough on what she has achieved but the step up to an extended 2m5f here is surely going to suit her here.
By Blue Bresil (sire of the likes of Constitution Hill and Royale Pagaille) out of a dam whose sole victory came at this trip, she should improve for the greater test of stamina - her half-brother Kyntara stays 3m - and she is clearly lightly-raced.
Hopefully, the trainer doesn't have one eye on a race at his beloved Ludlow for this mare - she is owned by the Henry Daly Racing Club, and they love a winner there (a 33 per cent strike rate, no less, with four winners from 12 runners) - as I think she will go well here if straight enough.
At the price, I'll definitely take my chances. The Sportsbook are paying five places if you want to back her each way.
Get on Pileon
The excellent Christian Williams has got hold of a very well handicapped horse in Pileon from Philip Hobbs, and if he has got his jumping sorted then he has to be a factor off just 131 on his stable debut in the 3m handicap chase at 15:00.
That is a fair if I guess, as his two chasing efforts in 2020 hardly screamed natural. But the hirsute one has a good knack with these types and Pileon is off the same mark here as he was when winning by five lengths over hurdles at Sandown in December.
He won his bumper here when with Hobbs, he likes a bit of ease and the handicapper has been lenient enough to allow him to scrape into this 0-130. Remember, this is also a horse who finished a short head second to Indefatigable off 138 in the Martin Pipe in 2020.
I appreciate Pileon could be targeted at prizes down the line, especially with a lot of the stable's horses running modestly (albeit at hefty odds) at the moment, but back him to small stakes win-only at 8/1 with the Sportsbook. Any 7s or above is fine, too.
You have to fear anything that Joe Tizzard is running at the moment (he had five in a row before a loser at Chepstow on Wednesday afternoon) so 4/1 chance Killer Kane has to be feared.
Hold on to your cash with the Haldon Gold Cup
The big race of the day at Exeter is obviously the five-runner Haldon Gold Cup at 15:35, a race in which Dolos and Us And Them are 1lb and 8lb out of the weights respectively.
I don't have a strong opinion, though I'd like to see Greaneteen run well as he gears up for another crack at the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December. I don't bet on good wishes, though.
Espion can win again at Down Royal
ITV are casting their net far and wide on Friday, as they also take in three races from Down Royal, as well as the American action.
American Mike may actually be the star name on the card in the opening maiden hurdle but that isn't on the box and Gordon Elliott is also running two of his other bigger names as Pied Piper takes on stablemate Fil Dor in what looks a straight match in the five-runner Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at 14:05.
Nothing doing there.
The 11-runner mares' Grade 3 hurdle at 13:30 looks a bit too difficult for me - it is full of unexposed improvers, and trying to work out the best of Willie Mullins's four is hard enough - and the 2m100yd handicap chase at 14:40 is much more appealing.
Back Espion Du Chenet at 12s.
He has shot up the weights since winning this race last season but that rise is justified given two successes in the interim and his run at Cork last time, his first for 77 days, screamed as a tee-up for this race.
To put it mildly, he was not given a remotely hard time there despite seemingly travelling well, off the pace, all the way round. I don't know anything about his 7lb claimer but hopefully Cian Quirke can add to his eight winners from 99 rides this season.
The horse is only 4lb higher than when winning well at Punchestown in May, after all. The first firm up on Wednesday afternoon made him 14/1 but I am happy at 10/1 and above, so take the Sportsbook's 12/1 win-only.
ITV are also covering five races from the opening Breeders' Cup day at Keeneland on Friday.
It is juvenile day though, and I'd feel a bit of a fraud recommending any bets when my knowledge of the home contingent is close to zero.
Of course, we can all watch the videos and the like and read the bullish trainer interviews, but dipping in and out of a foreign discipline - foreign in all senses of the word, and I rarely bet on 2yo races over here anyway - rarely leads to profitable betting.
Sure, we think we know all about our English and Irish raiders in the three 2yo turf races on Friday night, but that is obviously only one small part of the betting picture.
Good luck if you are having a dabble - and Ryan Moore, who has three rides on Friday, has a column about the meeting up on Wednesday afternoon - but the US action on Friday genuinely isn't for me, I am afraid.
It is best to be honest about these things.
Go well.
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