Friday Racing Tips: 25/1 Rocco is Tony Calvin's top tip on Day 2 of the July Meeting

• Four races from Newmarket and two from York on Friday

• Tony Calvin likes 25/126.00 Berkshire Rocco

• Nashwa came very close to being a tip in Falmouth

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I don't think we will truly know the Newmarket going until the times start filtering through on Thursday, but they have been watering heavily into an unsettled forecast - granted they started putting it on when the going was officially good to firm on Tuesday morning - and I am going to continue to work on the basis of good ground.

That could be well wide of the mark, but we are all guessing at this stage to a degree.

Newmarket - 13:50: No Bet

The opening 1m2f handicap at 13:50 is normally the kind of puzzle I like to try to solve, but I am afraid it has beaten me.

There was no angle into the race from a pace perspective (eight of these like to race prominently), and basically nothing jumped out at me at the prices.

Historically, you need a horse with a lot in hand to be landing this race, as recent winners include subsequent Group 1 performers/scorers New London, Dubai Honour and Communique (the Johnston stable have had a lot of success in this race) and a low draw is preferable if you have a forward-goer, as you can get on the near rail and kick on.

If there is a track bias there, then happy days.

The 10/111.00 chance Bolster probably interested me most pre-draw, as he was impressive when making all under a penalty at Windsor before running a little bit better than the bare form suggests when upped in class to the Hampton Court last time (hampered a touch when coming with his challenge).

He has a relatively unexposed profile after just three runs, and a fair handicap mark of 99, but the draw in 10 was off-putting in such a difficult-to-call handicap.

If something does look to get a relatively lead on the rail - and Johnston's 12/113.00 poke Knockbrex looks a likely candidate from trap one - then I imagine the in-running posse will be all over it.

Newmarket - 14:25: No Bet

I rarely bet in 2yo races, and especially so when I don't disagree with the top of the market.

That is the case in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at 14:25, a race in which it is pretty hard to see beyond runaway course and distance winner Star Of Mystery and Albany third Soprano, even with the proviso that they are up against two or three similarly lightly-raced fillies with the potential to improve.

It should have been more but the field cut up from 11 to five at the overnight stage, despite there being prize money down to sixth.

I'd just favour Soprano of that pair as the Royal Ascot form looks the more solid (though Star Of Mystery seems to have done marginally better on the clock when winning here last time), but it is a race easily swerved.

Newmarket - 15:00: Back Berkshire Rocco

I saw enough from Berkshire Rocco in the Northumberland Plate last time to suggest he may be ready to finally arrest his dip in form in the 1m6f handicap at 15:00.

He was obviously a very classy performer at his best, rated 116 after his St Leger second, but he is now down to 97 after four seemingly underwhelming runs since April.

However, I thought he did pretty well to be beaten just seven lengths at Newcastle last time, considering he raced prominently throughout in a race where it suited to be delivered late, and the Sportsbook's 25/126.00 looks far too big to ignore off a falling handicap mark.

Back the outsider of the field, each way, three places, at 25/126.00.

I'd have tipped him at 14/115.00. The general price in the marketplace is 25/126.00 and 20/121.00 as this column goes live, by the way.

I know he is a 6yo but he is hardly an old man in staying terms and I suspect 1m6f is his optimum trip. He handles fast, good and soft ground alike, so we are okay on that front. And Andrew Balding has his team in very good order after a winless Royal Ascot.

Newmarket - 15:35: No Bet

The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at 15:35 is another race that I initially viewed as a match at the five-day stage, with impressive Pretty Polly winner Via Sistina the clear form pick and Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee, getting the 9lb age allowance, the obvious, in-form pair.

But I have long held the view that Nashwa could well be best at a mile, given a suitably strongly-run race, and I thought it was time to walk the walk, after talking the talk.

The price has disappointed me a tad though, but we will get to that shortly.

She hasn't raced over a mile since winning a novice by 6 ½ lengths on fast ground on her second start in April 2022, and of course she has taken in the Oaks since, finishing a very respectable third.

She has since bagged a couple of Group 1s over 1m2f, narrowly missing out on a third when picked up close home in the Prix de L'Opera on Arc weekend, and she is clearly highly effective at that trip.

But she has always struck me as a filly whose main attribute is pace and a change of gear, and she gets the chance to show that here.

And, crucially, she does so after two underwhelming odds-on defeats, most recently when collared close home after being ridden far more aggressively over 1m2f in a Group 3 at Newcastle last time, which I thought would really help boost her price.

Hopefully, we will see a far more patient ride off what promises to be an evenly-run race - Random Harvest seems the likely front-runner, but last year's winner Prosperous Voyage and Astral Beau will keep her honest - and Nashwa at her peak (her Nassau win from subsequent Group 1 winner Aristia is her best effort) is just about a form match for anything in here.

Probably more than a match, even if Via Sistina and Remarquee are the coming forces.

Given the ground doubts, it is an obvious plus that she is at home on fast going or with plenty of dig - any rain and watering will probably be in her favour given the drop back to a mile - but, as tends to be the case with me, I had a real problem with the price.

Before I saw the reformed market on Wednesday morning, I wanted at least 4/15.00 - actually that is a lie, I was after nearer 5/16.00 after her two recent efforts - and the current exchange price of 4.77/2 and The Sportsbook's 10/34.33 isn't quite cutting it for me.

This isn't a weak renewal, certainly not in terms of depth, anyway.

So I have to pass for now. I will play if she hits 9/25.50 anywhere between now and Friday, as unlikely as that may currently look.

For what it is worth, I think she will. One firm has literally just gone up with some 4/15.00, so let's hope that trend continues. If it does, I will probably put her up as a bet in Saturday's column, which will be out on Thursday afternoon.

York - 14:05: No Bet

We also have two ITV races from York.

The going there is good but rain is due on Friday, with wildly differing opinions of how much, from negligible to 21mm depending what site you use! The 21mm is surely far too punchy, but who knows?

I'll be brief for once, which will please the sub.

I don't have any betting opinion in the 7f handicap at 14:05 other than the pace in the race could well suit the closer Another Investment once again.

However, he went up 11lb for winning last time (admittedly by 5 lengths) and he is now 7lb higher than his previous career-high mark, which seems a touch harsh, so even the Sportsbook's top industry price of 7/24.50 is easily resisted.

York - 14:40: No Bet

The unpenalized Commonwealth Cup third Swingalong is the obvious one in the 6f Group 3 at 14:40 , as she is just about the form horse, she has a good course win to her name, and she handles fast and soft ground, so the forecasters can be as wrong as they like.

But the Sportsbook's 15/82.88 - which is pretty much the general price, with 2/13.00 available in one place -is a firm no, as she could get pace pressure on the front end by three of her rivals and she doesn't have that much in hand from some of these, anyway.

Just the one play on Friday then.

Apologies for the early columns this week, but needs must as I have to stay well ahead of the game this week.

Go well.

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Read Ryan Moore's views on his Friday rides at Newmarket and Longchamp

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