ITV Races

Doncaster St Leger Festival Friday Tips: Tony Calvin says Rhythmic Intent can get in the mix at 10/1

Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin
Has TC found a winner with Rhythmic Intent on Friday?

Tony Calvin previews day two of the Doncaster St Leger Festival and manages to find his rhythm in the 15:35 race...

  • Flying Childers Stakes looks wide open

  • Coltrane may be best Doncaster Cup bet at prices

  • TC's 10/1 shot could go close off a mark of 89


It's as if ITV and Doncaster are deliberately trying to wind me up, which wouldn't be hard admittedly.

The four terrestrial races on Friday consist of yet another couple of juvenile contests, with a five-runner Doncaster Cup, and a dangerous dead-eight in the only handicap on show, thrown in for good measure.

It looks as if ITV are having a premature soft launch of next year's controversial Premierisation programme (I may have something stronger to say about that when the BHA eventually release the details) as surely they could have weaved some of the afternoon fare from Sandown and Chester into the coverage to give us billy bunters more to go at.

And the best betting race at Donny is probably the 12-runner 6f111yd handicap at 16:45.

Forecast is decent but ground won't dry

A bit of the usual going housekeeping.

The ground was soft on Wednesday morning, when they got another 0.6mm of rain, with maybe another 2mm to come throughout the day.

If the ground is genuinely soft at the start of the meeting (the times will tell us the score on that front on Wednesday), then I can't see it drying out too much at this time of the year, even if it is a largely decent forecast now this week. At the time of writing, anyway.

Keep a keen eye out for non-runners if betting each way.

Doncaster - 13:50: No bet

Anyway, first up on the telly box is the Flying Scotsman at 13:50, a race in which none of the 10 go into with outstanding claims on form or on the clock.

In Listed terms, this is much of a muchness, though of course any of the 10 have the potential to leap forward.

Indeed, nine of the 10 are last-time-out winners and the other horse, Power Mode, has a solid enough chance on her French Group 3 run in July. I certainly wouldn't lay him at the Betfair Sportsbook's 33/134.00.

What I am trying to say in a long-winded manner is I have no real betting interest in the race. If you shoved a shooter in my face and said "give me a tip", I may have said Newbury winner Dancing Gemini at a double-figure price on the Betfair Exchange, I guess.

But I would need proof it was loaded first.

Doncaster - 14:25: No bet

The 12-runner Flying Childers at 14:25 is probably harder to call, and it was 4/15.00 the field if you shopped around early on Wednesday morning.

Big Evs (the early 4s mentioned above was quickly taken about him), Inquisitively, Flora Of Bermuda and Kylian predictably head the market.

But I can envisage a scenario in which Zoulu Chief, [18/1 and bigger on the Exchange], goes left out of the stalls from trap one (the stalls are in the centre), gets on the far rail and makes all.

He has proved greased (or is it grease?) lightning for Gina Mangan in making all for nursery wins at Windsor and York over 6f - the York runner-up went one better off a 5lb higher mark at Kempton last time - and you have to think the step down in trip will be no issue at all.

Easier ground and a better class of opposition may be though and, while I applaud connections staying loyal to Mangan, it does also mean she can't claim her usual 3lb in this Group 2. And whether being drawn in one, or on the far side, is the best to be remains to be seen.

Furthermore, this race is so open it is untrue.

Doncaster Flat Racing 956.jpg

You can give a chance to most on the best of their form lines, while the two outsiders Fools Gold and Rosario won last time out, on their second start and debut respectively. It is interesting that Michael O'Callaghan namechecked this race for his Navan winner Francis Meynell immediately afterwards.

Doncaster - 15:00: No bet

I was keen to see how the betting opened up for the five-runner Doncaster Cup at 15:00 after the decs, as I have long thought Sweet William (well, since his Newbury win in July, anyway) could cut it in this grade in staying contests, with the Long Distance Cup at Ascot in October on my radar for him.

However, I didn't expect him to be as short as 7/24.50 in this line-up.

I'd be in the camp that he probably should have won the Ebor last time, but the fact of the matter is that he was beaten off a mark of 99 in a bunch finish and he meets three Group 1 performers here.

Sure, Coltrane has a 3lb penalty and Trueshan and Broome have seen better days, but 7/24.50 is a bit too skinny for my liking. And when the price is shorter than you want, then you have to walk away.

In fact, I'd probably say Coltrane, who beat Trueshan in a tussle in this race last year, is the best bet in the race at edging towards 6/42.50 on the Betfair Exchange, even though he has that 3lb burden for his recent Lonsdale Cup win.

Doncaster - 15:35: Back Rhythmic Intent

Some shrewdies/those certain that their accounts wouldn't be shut saw the rain had landed at Donny first thing on Tuesday morning and immediately snaffled some 10/111.00 about slop monster The Goat in the Mallard Handicap at 15:35 - not me unfortunately - and he is now into 5/23.50 favouritism with the Betfair Sportsbook.

That is obviously far too short now about the runaway Goodwood winner and Melrose sixth, even if he does get the handy age allowance from the rest as the only 3yo in the field.

If the ground had worsened from Tuesday's soft, then maybe, but not now.

It is not as if plausible rivals are hard to find either.

Real Dream is obviously a lot better than he showed when given a forcing ride from a wide draw in the Ebor, Bague D'Or ran a screamer off a long absence at York and has to be very dangerous if backing up that run on easier ground.

The unexposed Quantum Leap is primed to improve - both of the first-named pair are 7/24.50 with the Sportsbook - and Rhythmic Intent is 6lb lower than when winning this race in 2021 and has been running well in the main.

The 7yo Rhythmic Intent is by far the most exposed of the above four but he has been running adequately this term - he did run below par last time but that was a possibly non-staying effort over 2m at Goodwood (his first attempt at the trip) - and his earlier third at Sandown was a fair effort, with the fourth winning easily next time.

1m6f with a bit of cut could be his ideal conditions (Timeform called his win in this race two years ago good, as opposed to the official good to firm), and two of his better efforts have been at this track, including his November Handicap second on soft off a mark of 94.

He is actually due to go down 1lb in future handicaps but he is more than capable of going close off a mark of 89. As well as his win in this race off 95, and the November Handicap run, he has also won by three lengths off 90 in the past.

I would have liked to have tipped him each-way but I am not getting involved in that manner at this stage (when there are eight entries, a non-runner often follows, especially if the ground changes, as we saw again on Wednesday) so I will settle for a win-only bet at 11.010/1 or bigger (he is also that price with the Sportsbook).

Back Rhythmic Intent @ 11.010/1 on Betfair Exchange

Bet now

That price should be easily attainable, as he is actually 14/115.00 and 12/113.00 in the wider marketplace, so shop well. I'll settle at Betfair SP, as per usual.

Good luck.


Read Ryan Moore: Yorkshire Cup third gives Broome every chance in Friday's Doncaster Cup

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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

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