Dewhurst Stakes Big Race Verdict: Gstaad on for revenge and Saba to improve

• Gstaad and Zavateri meet again after National Stakes

• Appleby has a strong hand with Distant Storm and Saba Desert

• Alan Dudman delivers the Big Race Verdict for Saturday's Group 1 at Newmarket 

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It's Appleby versus O'Brien again

With metronomic regularity, Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby are the two trainers that are key to Saturday's Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at 15:00 - traditionally one of the premier end of season top level Pattern races and over 7f, a strong stayer is essential.

Distant Storm's trainer has won two of the last four editions of the Dewhurst, while Ballydoyle have won the race six times since 2009 with the likes of Air Force Blue, War Command, Churchill and US Navy Flag. O'Brien is also chasing a record ninth win in the race.

The Sportsbook this year likes Godolphin, indeed the sellers and vendors did at the recent Tattersalls October Sales. A set of dizzying numbers there is about as hyperbolic as you can get in today's climate as money was spent like water. 

Distant Storm is part of a very strong Future Champions team at HQ and his commanding victory in the Newmarket 7f Tattersalls Somerville Stakes last time was about as impressive visually as you can get.

A near five-length win, the run was given a 113+ figure from Timeform - a big jump from 94+ and 98+ ratings.

His flop came in the Acomb at York - a race in which he was too enthusiastic for his own good, and that has to be a nagging doubt in the back of the mind in terms of him tackling 7f again in a better class at the top level, and while his form took a big jump last time, that Group 3 at Newmarket is never a race I've admired.

Keen-going tendencies in the Acomb doesn't make him the notorious blow-hard just yet. If we had an xK figure (expected keenness), his number would be a little higher than Gstaad's.

Can Gstaad find his Coventry magic?

In opposition, and in the maroon corner is that Ballydoyle upstart Gstaad. And what's happened to him since he announced himself into a different league after his Group 2 Coventry Stakes win over 6f. 

He was second in the Morny - beaten a neck at 11/102.11 in France, and again was seen off at a short price on home soil in the Group 1 National Stakes behind Zavateri.

Those two had a ding dong battle royale down the Curragh straight - with Gstaad (or Stad as he was called in comms) hit 1.11/10 in-running and was denied by the narrowest of margins.

I've revisited the race on Friday and I thought Gstaad looked more of a miler than Zavateri so it's perhaps in the latter's favour they both meet again at 7f on Saturday, but Gstaad looked a bigger model and took a while to stoke up and a better class of race might suit more, although Zavateri did superbly well to come from a little further back.

The ground was also good to soft that day in Ireland according to Timeform, and with his best performance thus far on genuine fast ground at Royal Ascot, the conditions are likely to be swinging in his favour to reverse that form.

Christophe Soumillon continues in the absence of the injured Ryan Moore and he's proving the best deputy since John Prescott.

Zavateri doing it for Eve

Zavateri is not too far behind in terms of the betting and on the flip side at the Curragh when landing the National Stakes - hit hit 10.519/2 in-running to Gstaad's 1.11/10.

Fair play also to Eve Johnson-Houghton, and if I were a wealthy man to spend fortunes, I'd go to Tattersalls and give a runner or two to her. She consistently outperforms what is expected from a yard who financially wouldn't be anywhere near Godolphin or Tabor's crew, but she's a master at the sales' races and it was terrific to see her landing a Group 1.

He has plenty of experience and Saturday will be his fifth engagement, and he's been brought along with subtle authority from EJH with a steady climb in the Timeform ratings - from a basement 74, 103+, 104+ and 115.

It would be foolish to think he's done with improving.

His sire Without Parole also makes for an interesting stat -  he is 0-4 at HQ over 7f and Saturday's trip, but with three runners at Newmarket over 1m he is 2-3 and placed 100%, so they stay for sure. 

What the trainers say

Charlie Appleby on Distant Storm: "I thought he was very impressive there, they went sensible even fractions and when he hit the rising ground he got home very well.

"The seven furlongs (at York) can just catch some of those two-year-olds out."

Eve Johnson-Houghton on Zavateri: "He's great, he's been working really, really well and we're going there full of hope.

"He obviously hasn't run at the track before, but he handled the July course and he handled Goodwood, so we've got every reason to believe that he'll handle this.

"It will take a good horse to beat him, and if they're better than him then so be it, but they will have to be very good.

"He has been a dream this year, and to win this would really be the icing on the cake."

Appleby on Saba Desert: "I was disappointed with him in the National Stakes, he went there on the back of a Superlative win so it's a route we've gone before. The ground was on the slow side and he never got going.

"He came out of it well and we hold him in high regard. We've popped the cheekpieces on for concentration, hopefully he can rekindle the Superlative form."

Of the others

John and Thady Gosden's Oxagon was fifth on debut behind Distant Storm but showed a different side when trouncing a field in a Sandown novice.

Last time out his second in the Champagne Stakes is worthy of consideration as he was short of room behind Puerto Rico and stays at 7f from the Champagne. 

I do like Saba Desert, who beat Italy in the Superlative Stakes on good to firm but didn't go a yard in the National Stakes - but as outlined with the trainer quote, the ground had gone against him in Ireland. 

Appleby goes for the first-time cheekpieces with Saba Desert and his record when using headgear at Newmarket is a whopping win rate of 29% and placed at 47%.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Verdict

With the quicker ground in store, and a fine run with his first attempt at 7f, I see Gstaad as a horse who should get the 7f at Newmarket well and might even stretch out further. 

With the ground likely to be fast-ish, and certainly no worse than good, Saba Desert is a big player here. He was very green in the Superlative when scoring, as he reared on leaving the stalls and was wayward in the closing stages from his rail position near-side to ending up drifting markedly to his left.

The finishing speed at 99% for that Superlative win indicates the 1m will suit him down the line, and with headgear to iron out the issues and with experience, he has a spectacular pedigree as a Dubawi and a dam by Sea The Stars. Indeed, Dubawi's record as a stallion over Newmarket and 7f reads 28% win and 50% placed - and that trumps the Without Parole one purely on number of runners. 

And if you fancied one of those at the Tatts Sales, you wouldn't get much change out of two million sheets.

1) Gstaad

2) Saba Desert

3) Distant Storm

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Now read Paul Nicholls on his Saturday runners at Chepstow.

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