Cleeve Hurdle Big Race Verdict: Back Cheltenham regular for a big run on Saturday

• Impose Toi to set out his claims ahead of Stayers' Hurdle in March

• Can veteran cause a big shock on Saturday?

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Cleeve the one for the Festival impact

Soft conditions ahead for Cheltenham Trials Day and while plenty of quality, field sizes for the big races are not blessed with numbers.

Grey Dawning should enhance his Gold Cup claims as an 8/151.53 favourite in the Cotswold Chase, while The New Lion at 9/52.80 has the right of reply against Sir Gino, the latter at 4/91.44 for effectively a match in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle. WG Grace used to put an extra 3 shillings on the gate when he played in these parts of the world, so at least they have the big names.

The Cleeve Hurdle at 15:35 perhaps could provide the biggest shake-up to the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle market, for which Impose Toi is currently a 5/16.00 shot behind Teahupoo and Honesty Policy, and while contenders have come and gone in this (I am looking at you Honesty Policy), Impose Toi keeps on winning.

Market moves on the Sportsbook

Arnaud Chaille-Chaille has said "non non" to the participation of Theleme and he was prominent in the ante-post list earlier this week, but now out it changes a few things, and the long-absent gallic mystery has to be a major doubt if he even makes the Festival now after this latest dirty scope. Impose Toi at 5/61.84 could be the best 5/61.84 shot ever in a rank division, let's be honest, as he has already beaten Strong Leader twice in the Long Walk at Ascot and Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury.

Nicky Henderson has never won the Cleeve and has made sure of addressing that anomaly as he also has Doddiethegreat with Freddie Gordon booked, currently a 13/27.50 player.

Ma Shantou, for Emma Lavelle, has been backed from 11/26.50 into 9/25.50 for those perhaps that have spied a cheeky each-way for the two places as Strong Leader has drifted from 7/24.50 to 4/15.00.

Last year's winner Gowel Road was a 14/115.00 chance as of Friday morning with no backers.

Key form lines

Impose Toi has taken the traditional route with Ascot and Newbury and his official BHA rating is the superior one in the field at 159, 3lb ahead of Strong Leader and on the Timeform numbers, is 169 plays 167 with Impose Toi also a Horse In Focus.

Strong Leader was a 5/2 JF in last year's Cleeve and ran poorly in fourth - well beaten on his first run since a wind op and ridden off the pace. He was third in the Noble Yeats 2024 Cleeve, closer, but still beaten.

Gowel Road rarely runs away from Cheltenham, and Saturday will be his 17th appearance over the Prestbury plains and he stayed on well to beat Monmiral 12 months ago. Incredibly consistent and tries hard with a straightforward attitude.

Sam Twiston-Davies, while calling him a pleasure to ride, expressed his limitations in top company post-race last year and he was a well beaten 33/1 shot in the Stayers.

Ma Shantou comes from the Paisley Park camp, whose name is etched into Cleeve folklore with three successive wins. Ma Shantou's official rating at 144 means there is work to do, but he's 4-8 over hurdles so lightly-raced, and a two-time CD winner already this term at Cheltenham.

His wins have been in handicap company so he needs to step up, but both wins this term have been on official good ground.

Pace map for tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: Gowel Road.

PROMINENT: Strong Leader, Doddiethegreat, Ma Shantou.

HELD UP: Impose Toi, Kamsinas? Ma Shantou?

Trainer form

Nicky Henderson: 6-21 at 29% last 14 days.

Emma Lavelle: 4-13 at 31% last 14 days.

Olly Murphy: 8-34 at 24% last 14 days.

Fergal O'Brien: 7-33 at 21% last 14 days.

Nige and Willy Twiston-Davies: 2-28 at 7% last 14 days

Big Race Verdict

Ma Shantou would be the potential improver and while I have pointed out his two wins on good ground this season might temper some enthusiasm, he has soft form and also heavy form as he scored at Huntingdon in heavy early in his career.

He was beaten out of sight in the Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle in November at Haydock, and while Gowel Road hasn't got any improvement in him at his age, at 14/115.00 with his track record and experience looks the each-way play for that second place.

The veteran is likely to have the lead in front and as Impose Toi is a horse never to bomb away from anyone at the end as he can idle, I'll take his experience. Impose Toi should win it, but at 5/61.84 I am not revealing any secrets.

I have gone for a couple of big prices in the last two Big Race Verdict columns. Double Powerful was second in the Lanzarote at a BSP of 26.0 and Thistle Ask was second last weekend for the column at a BSP of 11.67. 

Now read the latest Paul Nicholls blog on his exclusive column ahead of Trials Day!