Celebration Mile Big Race Verdict: Zavateri can grace Goodwood in style on Saturday

Sportsbook market moves

Ahead of Saturday's Group 2 Celebration Mile (15:10 Goodwood), the big mover to report from late Thursday into the early hours of Friday was Boiling Point - in from 13/27.50 to 10/34.33. Karl Burke's five-year-old defeated Naqeeb earlier in the season at the track's May meeting and made hard work of that.

Naqeeb has no friends on the Sportsbook and had drifted out to 10/111.00 from 7/18.00, while a former Group 1 winner at the course in Qirat was quite weak too out to 5s.

Trends for Celebration Mile

This was the race some 25 years ago that Saeed bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute dominated. Stoute, a man who said very little, won the race seven times from 1997 to 2009. Bin Suroor, then the Godolphin top dog, won it four times from 1996 in a 14-year period.

Bin Suroor would do well these days to have a runner in a Class 4 at the track.

Since 2000, the three-year-olds have won 11 renewals and there is only one three-year-old in the race with Eve Johnson Houghton's Zavateri rated 117 and in receipt of weight from the elders.

Eve's father Fulke won the race in 1969 thanks to Habit and Lester Piggott - a three-year-old.

The aforementioned Burke took the race in 2024 with Ice Max and Ralph Beckett's four-year-old Angel Bleu won the year before.

The best of the form clues

Zavateri as the 2/13.00 favourite has to answer a few questions, but the trade off against that is this looks a Group 2 that is hardly endowed with a garland of stars, and it could well be that Johnson Houghton's younger gun could twinkle the best.

Okay, he disappointed at York last week and it's a quick turnaround, but that was a pretty hot City Of York and perhaps the 7f there was too quick for him.

His fifth in the Sussex Stakes again a ladder too high, and he's not jousting with 120+ performers in this race.

Personally I think he is a pretty solid 2/13.00 shot here, although I doubt he'll want a deluge.

The rain is a worry for Boiling Point, as while he holds winning form on good to soft, most of his racing has been on decent going and quotes attributed to his trainer aired some worries about possible thunderstorms.

Beaten last time in a Conditions event, that form looks inferior to Zavateri's, and he has to give the favourite weight too.

Qirat fans continue to cling onto the Sussex Stakes shocker at 150/1151.00 all those summers ago (well one) and his big white blaze and socks have gone in most types of going before, but can he upgrade his recent runs to another premium performance?

A victory in the Group 3 Criterion in June saw him finish strongly down the centre on the Knavesmire and he is 2-4 at Goodwood.

Seagulls Eleven is the biscuit baron's runner, and Hugo Palmer's four-year-old had the edge over Boiling Point in the Diomed at the Derby meeting. The going was good to soft, good in places but he was perhaps flattered that day by snaking up the rail - and that was where you needed to be at Epsom.

Beyond those main players, Pina Sonata is surely capable of better, but she ran appallingly at Epsom when last and her keen-going ways are hindering her chances at the moment.

She produced a hot display at Kempton in March taking the Listed Snowdrop, but the recent efforts on turf and her need to over-race doesn't exactly make her the enchantress of the race.

Pace Map + Draw

FRONT-RUNNERS: Qirat (8), Pina Sonata (3), Boiling Point (1), Naqeeb (9).

PROMINENT: Qirat (8), Seagulls Eleven (7), Pina Sonata (3), Boiling Point (1).

MID-DIVISION: Ebt's Guard (2), Zavateri (6).

HOLD-UP: Fast Tracker (5), Arisaig (4), Zavateri (6).

Top Goodwood Trainers

Karl Burke: 6-21 this season at Goodwood at 23%, and 15-92 last five seasons at 16%

Ed Walker: 8-103 runners last five seasons at 8% and level stakes loss -60.25

Ralph Beckett: 2-24 at Goodwood this season at 8.3% and level stakes loss -5.50

Hugo Palmer: 11-117 at Goodwood career at 9.4%

Charlie Johnston: 16-153 runners in the last five seasons at Goodwood at 11% and level stakes loss at -50.82

Eve Johnson Houghton: 2-20 this season at Goodwood at 10%, and 9-112 last five seasons at 8% and level stakes loss -43.38.

James Fanshawe: 1-10 this season at Goodwood at 10%, and 6-41 last five seasons at 15%

Is there a big price shock in store?

Fast Tracker is the unknown in terms of well-being in 2026.

He was a two-time Listed winner in his French racing days, over 1m1f and 1m2f in soft and heavy and wasn't too far behind Ombudsman when trained by the lawman, Francis Henri-Graffard two years ago in the Prix de Prince d'Orange.

He missed all of 2025 on the sidelines after his gelding op, and in just one run in 2026 he was stone last at Saint Cloud in a Listed race, a first outing since the cruel cut.

The issues, whatever they have been, have kept him on the subs' bench, but his new trainer Ed Walker must feel the talent is still there to pitch him into a Group 2, and with form in soft, he'll love the rain.

He could be one to monitor in the betting as much as the weather apps as he'll enjoy a predicted strong pace. But at 33/134.00, it doesn't feel me with utmost confidence.

Alan Dudman's Celebration Mile Verdict

The weather forecast if rain does hit Sussex, has made this a race a few would run from. But this is no time to retreat for Zavateri lovers and with so many holes elsewhere, the return to 1m in an easier race and with the weight pull is just too much of a pull to ignore.

He won at the track as a two-year-old and if good to soft he should be alright.

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