Big Race Verdict: Absurde to look beyond Mullins for Grand Cup at York

• York's Grand Cup a potential pointer to Ebor and Australia

• Absurde to have the race run to suit although rain is forecast

• Alan Dudman delivers his latest Big Race Verdict for Saturday on ITV 

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Five declared for the Grand Cup at York

There may be only five runners for York's feature Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes at 15:00, but it's a race packed with quality with four runners rated 108 to 112, although Raja Raja has got very little chance on form and looks more of a social runner.

In terms of the betting; it's been a week that has seen Willie Mullins' Absurde strong over the past few days and unmoved, although on Friday morning was alternating between 11/102.11 and 6/42.50.

Alsakib 5/23.50 has form tied in with Al Qareem 4/15.00 and Godolphin will be having a dart in the shape of El Cordobes - who was cut on Friday morning on the Sportsbook from 5/16.00 into 4/15.00.

Absurde 6/42.50

For sheer versatility, Absurde is a fantastic horse. He's been at Cheltenham, a former festival winner over hurdles, a winner at Chester, an unlucky run in the Melbourne Cup and a scorer at Plumpton - the latter was to the tune of the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual Sussex jumps' trainers, as it's not often you'd see a horse of his ability running around there.

Absurde finished third in the Ormonde last time with Al Qareem in second at Chester in a fascinating tactical race. Al Qareem went off to set a reasonable pace and Absurde travelled a little better than eventual winner Illinois, and did hit 2.747/4 in-running.

Ryan Moore was in the best position off the rail as I don't think Absurde was advantaged by running across to the far side - indeed his final furlong was slowest of the first three, albeit by a small margin.

Chester form has to come with a caveat of over-watering, and while he is perfectly fine on soft (and has won on heavy) he's a better horse on quicker ground and scored twice on fast going last term. As everyday day passes, I get more bewildered by the going description at the Roodee.

He's also an Ebor winner, so the races almost look after themselves for the big one at York in August and then another crack in Australia and in Ebor winner in an Ebor trial seems pretty straightforward doesn't it?

Alsakib 5/23.50

On ratings, Alsakib is a pound superior from 110 playing 109, and ran a fair race in the Yorkshire Cup on his return last time out and seems fairly adaptable with the going as to his name there are victories on both good to soft and good to firm. Rain is forecast for the early part of the morning on the Knavesmire, so that shouldn't be too much of a worry for fans and backers of the five-year-old.

He beat Al Qareem in last year's John Smith's Cup at York and PJ Macdonald who rode him then said the good to soft had come right for him and used his stamina well.

Alsakib certainly looks one whose constructive gifts are more in tune with stamina, and when landing the John Smith's Cup 12 11 months ago, he hit a high of 22.021/1 in-running and can get outpaced.

He'll come on for his latest run at York as his first for the season, but it was a messy race. Despite the small field he was left alone down the centre of the track and wasn't beaten far and the winner had some class over shorter, so it very much suited a horse with a bit more pace that day.

Al Qareem 4/15.00

Al Qareem holds an entry in the Irish St Leger and already has fitness on his side with three runs this term in a combination Ted Rogers run of form at 312.

On Chester last time, I'd anticipate him making the running again. He fronts it out in quite a keen going way and on Clifford Lee's comments previously you'd say he'd want the rain.

Lee said after Nottingham earlier in the season with the Further Flight victory he got away with the good, good to firm, and reflecting on the loss in France, he said the ground wasn't soft enough.

If you're backing him, that rain forecast needs to bring quite a lot. I worry he won't have the tactical pace as a galloper and grinder here even if he makes the running and he's certainly be the old fashioned "beetle bet" - the back-to-lay (btl).

El Cordobes 4/15.00

Charlie Appleby's El Cordobes has a chance to put his head above the parapet as a potential Ebor and perhaps Melbourne Cup horse from the Godolphin vast resources and he's the youngest acolyte in the field at four.

He was impressive winning a handicap at Newmarket over 1m4f in May on good, good to firm going and sauntered around HQ under William Buick with an air of complete unconcern and put the race to bed with an instant turn of foot.

Priced at 4/15.00, he'd be the horse best equipped for a crawl and a sprint, but on the flipside, his stamina is unproven as he has yet to race beyond 1m4f.

I was a little disappointed with his run in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes last term at Newbury - although he made the running and was ridden to stay. A race finishing speed of 111% highlighted more of a dash, though and Eydon flew past him quite comfortably.

His Newmarket win has been boosted the second (French Master) winning a handicap at Goodwood, and I doubt Buick will make the running here with the presence of Al Qareem.

He could have the best turn of foot, but he doesn't look as strong in terms of his stamina.

Raja Raja 80/181.00

Rated 82 and last of seven at Newbury last time (El Cordobes third).

Trainer form

Karl Burke: 3-31 last 14 days at 10%. York this season 2-18 at 11%.

Willie Mullins: 15-33 last 14 days at 45%.

Charlie Appleby: 3-14 last 14 days at 21%. York last five season 10-61 at 15%.

Andrew Balding: 12-58 last 14 days at 21%. York this term 2-15 at 13%.

Conclusion

While fairly unoriginal, Absurde looks to have the tools for this despite this third last time at Chester. For all his jumping exploits, he does possess pace and travelled so smoothly to win at the Roodee last season that a tactical race won't hinder him, neither a staying one.

Backers of Al Qareem I am sure will be rain-dancing while Alsakib is often held up and is similar as a stayer. Absurde should track the pace and might just have the race run to suit.

Now read more tips and previews for the weekend here!