Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Mistral at 5/1 looks a star bet for Park Hill

• Park Hill Stakes one of two Group races

• Last year's winner vulnerable in the conditions

• Alan Dudman likes the claims of a 5/16.00 shot for Thursday

Park Hill Stakes with a Beckett filly on the up

Doncaster's St Leger meeting commences on Thursday with an eight-race card and five are televised on ITV4. Between the Group races, the Park Hill over near-enough 1m7f looks an open betting heat with Night Sparkle as the favourite, and perhaps a vulnerable one too at 7/24.50.

In recent times this contest has been the preserve of John Gosden - a winner four times in the last 10 renewals. Gosden, as someone pointed out on Twitter, nay X this week, is having a quiet time of things with just over £3million in prize money in the UK. Lean times indeed, although I am sure the heating will not be switched off at Clarehaven this winter.

With no Gossy majpr contender in the ranks this year as Sweet Memories is a 25/126.00 rag, Ralph Beckett is looking to add to his two wins in the race in recent times with Oxford Comma - an improving stayer who has handled each step up in trip well. She goes up again in distance to test her mettle.

The impending good ground on Town Moor could negate the chances of some of the key players here. Oxford Comma has yet to race on a sound surface with anything other than soft in the description - indeed, her two wins have been on heavy (Salisbury) and good to soft (Doncaster) last time.

Both were in novice company and she takes the rise in class on Thursday too - but she's just the sort of staying filly that Beckett, the 'R' man does so well with.

Sumo Sam, a giant of a mare won the race 12 months ago, and she is superabundant in size, but alas, most certainly another candidate who would appreciate soft conditions, and even at 7/18.00, I cannot have her on good ground or quicker.

Hughie Morrison's Mistral Star at 5/16.00 looks to have decent claims with the drop in class as she's such a smooth traveller who will have no issue with any good or good to firm ground.

She won the Listed Aphrodite at Newmarket earlier this summer, ground Timeform described as having firm in the description, and she won fairly convincingly there. I like the way she moved into contention having been settled mid-pack, and that helped her as previously she had raced keenly. Once she was in daylight three furlongs to go she kept going and on that run over 1m4f, I think she'll stay Thursday's extra yardage.

On her sectional times from Newmarket, her final furlong was the quickest in the field to back up the visual impression, and she'll be alive to any tactical nuances in the race with the way she travels as she ran an 11.17 sectional at the mile point at HQ.

At 5/16.00 she has to be the bet for me with the drop in class too, as she was no match for Content in the Yorkshire Oaks last time in Group 1 company - her first try in the grade.

William Buick for Morrison holds a 21% strike-rate too.

How will it play out tactically?

Gather Ye Rosebuds sits handy but can be keen, and Night Sparkle made the running at Goodwood in the Lillie Langtry over 1m6f, a performance that was another sound effort from her and trainer Andrew Balding has often maintained that she's a top of the ground performer.

Oxford Comma has raced in softer with her two novice wins, but it's hard to gauge what she'll do up in class and trip on quicker ground.

Ed Walker's Scenic - winner last time out at York was ridden close to the pace in France over 1m7f at Deauville although different tactics were employed winning the Galtres as she was held up but travelled well, but the time of the Galtres was a fast one, and quicker than the Yorkshire Oaks.

Walker praised her afterwards by saying: "Oisin gave her a peach of a ride and she's just outstayed her rivals. It all fell into place today.

"Oisin rode her in this last year and he was really cross with himself afterwards. He said in the paddock he gave her a bad ride last year, but kept it really smooth today. She definitely wants a bit of ease in the ground. The Park Hill is an obvious shout and maybe the Prix Royal-Oak, as she probably won't stay in training next year."

Sweet Memories, for the cash strapped Gosdens, hasn't been good enough in recent runs and has been held up over 1m4f, while Grateful is another Lille Langtry runner who was held up. Sumo Sam, last year's shock winner, was prominent 12 months ago, but it was testing that day and things look different on that score for Thursday.

Therefore with no real obvious pace angle, the pace of Mistral Star alongside Scenic are the two that should travel the best.

Conclusion

Oxford Comma's price has contracted from 8/19.00 into 6/17.00 as of Wednesday morning on the Sportsbook, but the immense jump in class slightly negates all of her sufficient impetus so far. She's by Nathaniel and will stay, and for sire buffs, Nathaniel is 17% win and 34% placed over the trip at Doncaster in recent times.

But Mistral Star's run in the Aphorite gave hope she'll get further and it was a perfectly serviceable run in the Yorkshire Oaks last time, and while out of her depth ever so slightly there, this looks more realistic.

Now read Alan Dudman's Antepost column ahead of Irish Champions Weekend here!