Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Miami to prove magic for Dovecote feature on Saturday

• Miami Magic tops the betting for Saturday's big novice event

• Will Tripoli Flyer end up as favourite at Kempton

• Alan Dudman previews the big novice event this weekend 

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Timeform Superboost

The Paul Nicholls-trained Rubaud is the strong favourite to win today's Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase (13:50) at Kempton having finished a narrow runner-up to Arkle second favourite L'Eau Du Sud last time out, but if you want the insurance of him finishing in the top two instead of having to win then you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 2/51.40) to finish first or second today.

To take advantage of today's superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please note. Today's superboost is supplied by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our writers or tipsters.

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Formby Aintree form key to Dovecote

The ground at Kempton could be changing from Friday to day of race on Saturday with rain forecast at the time of writing this morning for the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices' Hurdle.

No Irish challenge was to be expected and Jonjo O'Neill's 6yo Roadlesstravelled is the second best here on official BHA ratings holding a figure of 137, although with four runs this season as a novice, you can say he's had a chance to run that figure.

He is one that looks overpriced at 14/115.00, but on the flipside is vulnerable to the upstarts and later developers but he's a good-looking sort physically and was faultless on his first two starts winning easily on good ground at Market Rasen and Wetherby.

However, he did run poorly in the Grade 1 Formby when last seen on Boxing Day at Aintree, and he now has a question to answer.

We head to the top of the market with Miami Magic for Stuart Edmunds, and he holds the best rating of 139 in the field with sensational wins on his first two starts at Fakenham and then CD at Kempton in November by scoring double digits. While not the deepest race with a 40/1 runner-up that day, Miami Magic sauntered around under front-running tactics and when crossing the line, was hard held.

He has an enthusiastic way of going about his business and was subsequently second to Potter's Charm in the Formby Grade 1 that Roadlesstravelled was pulled up in, and that would have proved to Edmunds that he has a Grade 1 horse to go to war with.

His 14th furlong at Kempton was a rapid 13.16 seconds and Edmunds clearly likes him by saying: "We think he's quite nice so we've just looked after him a bit, the Dovecote works well and we're looking forward to it."

While entered in the Supreme, Aintree looks a better race for him in the spring with his pace and he'll have better and kinder conditions in April, and dare I say it for Saturday compared to his Formby run in Liverpool as visibility was non-existent.

Priced at 7/42.75 on the Sportsbook, it's hard to argue with his chances.

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Tripoli flying for O'Brien after Musselburgh win

Tripolo Flyer is two from three this term for trainer Fergal O'Brien, but his wins have been virtual "gimmes" at odds of 2/51.40 and 1/141.07 and won by 29L at Market Rasen.

His latest start was in the Scottish Supreme Novices at Musselburgh and produced another big win by 11L but it was a messy race with no pace, which didn't help his jumping early as he was far too scrappy.

O'Brien said he'll be better with some spring ground and stronger pace and it was evident at Musselburgh that once the tempo increased three out, his jumping did improve.

His form is less established purely on the calibre of rival he has faced and winning by 29L at odds of 1/14 at Rasen didn't tell us a lot, but he does get 2lbs here from Miami Magic and I would imagine take a lead from the front-runner.

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Will Roysse's jumping hold up?

Celtic Dino is another with a pair of wide margin wins in the book with a 14L Wincanton triumph and 4L at Ascot in November.

It's worth tapping into the Ascot piece of form as the second Wade Out boosted the run with a subsequent win, but Joyeuse was the one to take in third, who has since bolted up in the former Betfair Hurdle at Newbury two weeks ago from a mark of 123 and surely looks a graded runner.

What I liked about Celtic Dino at Ascot was his jumping, and he looked more professional than at Wincanton and good ground looks to be key for him as it was soft in the Formby at Aintree where he finished fourth behind Potter's Charm and Miami Magic.

With his bumper win on good, and two hurdles' wins on good, his trainer Sam Thomas will want the rain to stay away and it will be worth monitoring how much Kempton get in the build-up from Friday into Saturday.

Ben Pauling's Roysse clearly must have worked well at home as he's been odds-on on all three starts but suffered the heartbreak of falling at the last at Newbury when 29L ahead. As a punter, and there would have been plenty despite the cramped odds, it's the ultimate blow and one wonders how Pauling must have come out of that.

The jumping has to be worry at pace, especially around Kempton as he'd hit a couple late on prior to that fall, and while a confidence booster was needed last time at Uttoxeter, he pulled hard and still made an error late on and was far from convincing despite being 2/91.22.

Indeed at one stage he looked in a spot of bother or at least having a race.

In short, I can leave him alone, he is talented, but pulling hard with mistakes is not a good recipe for success, especially against a pair who have already been in deep at Grade 1 level.

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Verdict and pace map

Miami Magic should lead here with Celtic Dino likely to be on his tail or attempt to to make it too. Roysse with his strong-travelling tendencies will suit a good pace and is sure to be held up, or at least away from the speed and Miami Magic has a chance to dictate as the feared Tripoli Flyer's jumping will be tested if the early gallop is stop start. 

Blues Singer was held up winning a bumper at Kempton last term but he's a 50/151.00 no-hoper while Starcrossed Lover bolted up at Wincanton by 17L when tracking the pace in second, although a lot of Neil Mulholland's horses often are played late and held up.

While unoriginal, Miami Magic's win at Kempton by 12L was visually so impressive and I wouldn't want to be laying him on that run. His honourable second at Aintree proved he is up to a good level and with such a zestful way of racing from the front, he'll be better served by dominating in the Dovecote as he couldn't lead at Aintree and the soft was a potential negative too.

At 7/42.75 from 2/13.00 on Friday morning and the tightness of the field plus the presence of Tripoli Flyer, he might even go back to 2/13.00.

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Now read more tips and previews for Saturday here from Betfair's team of writers

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