Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Go with the Flow with Hungerford 9/2 tip

• Two previous winners of the Hungerford in the line-up

• Tiber Flow at 9/25.50 appeals on the Sportsbook

• Alan Dudman assessess the chances of the field for Saturday

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Tiber Flow Superboost

The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes is the feature race at Newbury today (15:35) and William Haggas has a strong chance of landing the prize with his popular 5yo grey Tiber Flow.

In just a seven-runner field the Betfair Sportsbook have boosted Tiber Flow's place price from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00 to finish in the Top 3! To take advantage of this superboost simply click on the odds below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Hungerford down to seven for Saturday

The hopes of my antepost pick Poet Master making the Hungerford on Saturday were dashed, and he wasn't the only one to swerve the race with the 13 at entry stages now down to seven for the confirmations, and while Poet Master looked a bet before becoming a non-runner, the make-up of the race has altered significantly.

And it does look open.

In terms of the ground, the track has failed to provide a going stick update on the BHA site this morning, and as they have watered (we don't know how much), the good, good to firm in places is tricky to take at face value. If the watering can has been sprinkled liberally, will there be any firm in it?

Seven in the race negates the each-way angle with two places on the Sportsbook, which is a shame not having the eight, and we go 5/23.50 the field for Saturday.

Plus it's always good to have a race named in honour of the great Charlie Hungerford from Bergerac.

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English Oak and Kikkuli fighting out favourtism

English Oak 5/23.50 and Kikkuli 5/23.50 head the betting, although the latter has a 5lb advantage being a three-year-old against an older horse and on official ratings it's 112 to 108 in favour of Kikkuli.

He's the best starting point in the race, although his age bracket has only won this once in the last eight years.

While he acted in soft ground in the Heron at Sandown earlier in the season, he was certainly hamstrung by the testing going in France last time in the Prix Jean Prat - beaten four lengths by the impressive Puchkine.

It's not the only thing he's hamstrung by, as he's a half-brother to Frankel, which is like carrying an anvil on your back.

His form is good, not "moonlight stars in a soft purple sky" brilliance, but the pick is easily his second in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race summed up by trainer Harry Charlton by saying: "It's a shame to be second twice, but we won't take anything away from the horse, he's run great against a hardened Group One horse who's had a lot more experience than him."

If we could rely on the ground being genuinely quick, it gives him a better chance, but he's from an exuberant family and only has a Maiden win to his name. In my view, he's probably worth taking on at the price.

Harry's dad, although I suspect he'd say father, Roger, won this race back in 1993 with Inchinor. A great period I remember fondly with the likes of David Loder and Luca Cumani. Plus ca change.

At least English Oak for Ed Walker is one that doesn't seem to crave or fast or soft going - as he has scored in both.

He's a pretty zippy sort and the July Cup was mooted for him at one stage, but he's done well at 7f this term by sluicing up in a 0-90 at Haydock as a prelude before success at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap.

James Doyle said after Ascot: "He travelled superbly through the race. We had a massive advantage on the stands' side, even after going a furlong or so we were a long way ahead of the others. He's very speedy. He's got a high cruising speed, he does feel pretty fast. When I let him go there he quickened up pretty smartly."

Was Royal Ascot his big target? Wathnan, with their continued avarice, must have paid plenty after Haydock, and while he has the look of a Pattern performer, he was turned over in the Lennox Stakes last time at Glorious Goodwood, and the track would have played to his strengths.

A 7L beating behind Audience...nah, not for me. Plus, I do think the Wathnan horses are sometimes overbet.

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Jumby looking for a second Hungerford win

Jumby is a horse with a solid number of years behind him and is one of the joint-oldest in the field alongside Popmaster.

Eve Johnson-Houghton has done a marvellous job with Jumby considering he has held his rating of three figures since 2021, but he hasn't looked the same horse this season with a string of heavy defeats, although he ran a better race in a Newmarket handicap last time from a mark of 100.

His official rating has dipped 7lb this term, and while he is a 14/115.00 shot and the outsider here, on this season's efforts it is difficult to imagine he can replicate the 2022 Hungerford win.

The veteran won two years ago from off the pace, and one feels Popmaster will help him, as Popmaster can force the speed. Jumby is a fast surface horse, but he was a 33/134.00 shot earlier in the week with three places and 13 entered, he's now half that with two places, so I feel I have missed the boat anyway.

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Tiber Flow will be ridden with cover

Tiber Flow finished sixth behind Jumby in the 2022 version, although he might not have been placed to best effect with the way that panned out, and while he can look good on his day with the way he travels, he can throw in the odd stinker.

That was very much evident last time in the Lennox Stakes, although he again could have been at a disadvantage with the pace suiting those to the forefront rather than those coming from off it.

That's the way he is normally ridden as he has plenty of speed, so he needs cover to wait for the burst of acceleration. Tiber Flow's trainer William Haggas will no doubt be in York mode for next week, but he holds a fair record at Newbury with 21% win and 42% placed stats

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Hannon also has a previous Hungerford winner

There's another as part of the hold-up posse here as Witch Hunter likes to come from out the back, although a caveat here with me, and that is that I struggle to read the Richard Hannon yard, and very rarely tip or back anything from his team. No beef, it's just I find them tricky to read with the consistency.

Hannon Snr won this a few times with Only Yours in 1991 - ridden by the head-bobber Mouse Roberts, while Reel Buddy and Paco Boy were also successful for father. Witch Hunter wouldn't be nowhere near the class of Paco Boy, and is no more than a solid Group 2/3 horse who struggles to win.

In fact his last success was in this very race in 2023, when the ground rode soft and he was delivered late. On last year's success, he obviously holds claims, but he hasn't won this season and Tiber Flow has got the better of him twice, and if the race is run without pace, I think Tiber has a better turn of foot.

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Popmaster to push on?

Popmaster completes the Ed Walker duo, and he's a real hardy fellow who gives his all, but the price of 10/111.00 reflects the open nature of the race.

Owned by fellow West Ham fan Laurence Bellman, the yellow and blue livery surely will be more aggressively ridden here, but in terms of a bet, he's another held by Tiber Flow from Haydock's John Of Gaunt in June.

Folgaria was the Champion 2yo filly in Italy last season and lofty ambitions have been dented with a heavy defeat in the French 1,000 Guineas - a Pouliches pulveriser down the field. A similar sort of margin in sixth followed in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, so she goes down in class and distance.

Clearly a talent, she has to prove she is worth her rating of 105, but she gets the weight and sex allowance, which are plusses.

Her trainer Marco Botti has a 14% strike-rate this season with his three-year-olds on turf, although his record is not particularly good with just a 7% yield from his 71 runners at Newbury.

I suspect she might be better with rain-softened ground, and those were the conditions for her Fred Darling success earlier this year.

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Conclusion - Go with the Flow

Tactics will be critical here, and if there's a lack of pace, Tiber Flow's sprinter speed could come in handy.

The 5yo is at home on good ground, and he's a lot better than he showed at Goodwood last time, and perhaps Goodwood isn't his track.

He landed the Listed Carnavon Stakes at Newbury in 2022 and considering he's had some health scares and problems in his times, he has a fine attitude. Haggas can start the ball rolling going into Ebor week.

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