-
Sandown and Aintree headline on Saturday
-
Willmount looks well treated for Sandown handicap debut
-
Alan Dudman also tips two 14/115.00 chasers in big staying races
Two mile chasers to the fore for Tingle Creek and Henry VII
Weekends continue at a great pace and high quality with Sandown, Aintree, Kelso and Huntingdon all gracing the ITV4 cameras this weekend and it looks as though Aintree will take the bulk of the rain with three days forecast wet in the build-up while Sandown could escape with just one with rain forecast.
Betfair Tingle Creek day is always a special day and Jonbon does battle with Edwardstone again in the 2m Grade 1 with a reprise of last year's first and second, and while any Grade 1 is worth its salt, Jonbon is 1/21.50 so it's far from a betting race for me, plus it's likely to cut up. Although I shouldn't moan as two of the tips last week were big prices and went even bigger on the day with Anglers Crag in need of the run. Those are the chances you take with a first run of the season.
Boothill has the potential to be closer than fourth in the 2023 race and he's a 10/111.00 poke and the younger JPR One ran on the card 12 months ago when taking third behind Le Patron in the Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase, so it's hard to seeing him in Jonbon's class on that alone despite him coming out to win at Exeter on his reappearance.
Likewise in terms of a bet for the aforementioned Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase at 13:50 - another small field is to be expected in high level novices and L'eau Du Sud is odds' on with the Sportsbook after his 11L rout in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham last time.
A good hurdler, he's proved already a better chase in two starts and as a 10/111.00 chance for the Arkle itself in March, a good performance here will make that price go into single figures.
Gordon Elliott has two entered in Down Memory Lane and Touch Me Not and the former jumped with aplomb at Navan on his chase debut last time to beat King Of Kingsfield by 7L, although the horse he beat is a bit of a bridle horse, but Elliott has got him chasing straight away after just two hurdles runs and a win in a Fairyhouse Bumper.
Interesting, very interesting in the words of commentator Barry Davies.
Touch Me Not is the Gigginstown 5yo rookie chaser with a similar profile and appreciated the switch to soft ground to win the Grade 2 Craddockstown last time at Punchestown by a 6L margin, although he wasn't totally straightforward at the end of the race with a loose horse for distraction.
His jumping was electric and he's the sort who could take well to the Sandown fences, with Elliott saying after the Craddockstown victory: "I was worried about the ground, but it was a good performance and he came on plenty from last time.
"He was very keen as a young horse and didn't show me anything. He was well down the pecking order, but he's come a long way in six months.
"He might not be easy to place at Christmas. The two-mile race at Leopardstown is not there anymore and I don't think the Grade 1 at Limerick would suit. We'll get him home and see."
It's interesting these days that Leopardstown race is no longer around, which is why he is double-handed at the entry stage. Down Memory Lane could well emerge as a top talent and he's a front-runner who was part of a recent Elliott five-timer. He had a few little niggling problems last term and the sign of a class horse is when they can quicken - and he did that from two out with relish.
Elliott might have underplayed him when he said "He's a good horse."
I really hope Elliott rolls the Sandown dice as L'eau Du Sud could have a proper race against either of the Elliott two - who are 5/23.50 and 7/18.00 on the Sportsbook and both big prices for the Arkle itself.
It could be a case of wait and see for the declarations in terms of a bet. Roger Moore, when asked in Moonraker was he interested in anything? He woodenly replied: "Well I am tempted to say yes immediately", and I am tempted by the Elliott pair.
Willmount could be let in lightly from a mark of 130
Apologies for the slightly skew whiff order but the Grade 1s take preference on my watch before the handicaps and cameras roll with the opener from Sandown at 13:15 with the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and the 14:25 Betfair Plays Different Handicap Hurdle over 2m - with the latter priced up on the Sportsbook on Tuesday morning.
It's a 7/24.50 the field race with the Paul Nicholls progressive Kabral Du Mathan putting his unbeaten record on the line following wins at Kempton and Huntingdon.
He was at one stage a 12/113.00 chance for the Boodles Juvenile last season although he was deemed more of a Fred Winter type by the yard - alas we never saw him at the Fez.
Nicholls' great rival Nicky Henderson has two entered with Go To War 5/16.00 and Willmount 4/15.00 and I would say Go To War wants it soft and Willmount with more good to soft. Willmount could be well treated from 130 for a handicap debut and he's been given time since pulling up in the Grade 1 Challow last December.
He stopped quickly three out and lost a shoe, so whatever ailed him on that occasion prevented him from showing his true worth.
Willmount was very impressive at Newbury last November and he commanded £340,000 at the sales following a maiden point-to-point win at Comea in February 2022. A couple of striking wins at Doncaster and Newbury (one for Neil Mulholland) puts him into the exciting category and with the forecast ground, although it can ride tougher on the hurdles track, the going could be more suitable and Saturday looks a great spot to get up and running.
In short, 130 is a good mark considering he was at one stage a 12/113.00 chance for the Supreme.
Back Willmount in the 14:25 Sandown (Saturday)
Tommie the brave but Inis can have a big say in London 'Nash'
One of the most competitive fields will be the Sandown 15:35 Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase over the stamina sapping 3m5f and this is certainly more like it as a punting medium.
I need to mention Tommie Beau, who took the wrong course in the X-Country puzzle at Cheltenham last time earning a ban for Micheal Nolan, but in times when chasers are wrapped in cotton wool and are hardly seen, this veteran is a true Pechorin, ie Hero Of Our Time.
Twenty seven runs over fences and took in three runs over stamina trips in a week during the summer and won. He's earned his owners nearly 200k and is a splendid old staying chaser.
Nolan, if on, will want to right a wrong too. But in this instance I feel for the jockey as riding in that race at Cheltenham would be like going down some encryptic tunnel.
At 10s, I'd love to see him nick a place and he stays.
I've had my eye on Inis Oirr this term as two of his runs have been over an unsuitable distances at 3m this term, and both proved too sharp for this stamina-laden fellow.
He was pulled up last time out at Ascot in a good handicap over fences, but the ground would have been too quick for him there and Saturday might be the race he has what he wants - a slice of winter ground at a trip.
Inis Oirr won the Edinburgh National last season in great style (by 21 wickets) on good to soft over 4m with an all-the-way front-running performance and a superb jump two out.
I can see Sandown suiting his style if he can bounce out, lead and build up a rhythm as a he is very much a confirmed stayer.
The 14/115.00 looks well worth a poke on the Sportsbook each-way with three places and it's interesting Lucinda Russell has, or could, opt for this race rather than the Borders National at Kelso on Sunday.
Back Inis Oirr E/W in the 15:35 Sandown (Saturday)
The wait could be over with Arizona Cardinal
Over at Aintree, the Becher Handicap Chase at 14:07 sees one of my horses from last term in Arizona Cardinal set for a second outing this season after pulling up at Chepstow.
I've been waiting a while for him at Aintree as his fencing in winning the Topham over the National fences last season was magnificent - he was a real joy to watch.
He's back firing according to his trainer Stuart Edmunds after missing his Grand Sefton target with his trainer saying: "He's doing really well after his setback, the plan is now to go to the Becher with him," said Edmunds.
"It was a dirty scope that ruled him out but he's much better now, we're very pleased with him."
After his Topham win, Edmunds highlighted the round of fences saying he was superb and his jumping is such an asset there are big races still be won with him. Forget Chepstow as the ground was quick and he's my Aintree bet for Saturday at 14/115.00 with the four places on the Sportsbook and the forecast rain will certainly aid his cause.
Back Arizona Cardinal E/W in the 14:07 Aintree (Saturday)