-
Huge weekend with all the action priced up on Sportsbook
-
Two tips at 10/111.00 and 14/115.00 for Cheltenham on Saturday
-
Alan also looks at the weekend's Futurity Stakes at Doncaster
Go with Hobbs in Saturday opener
Saturday and Sunday brings Cheltenham and Aintree's first outings on the ITV cameras and a raft of races across the two days are already priced up on the Betfair Sportsbook with 15 races there to try and dissect and take an early price. Plus there's Doncaster on the Flat.
The weather for Prestbury Park is relatively dry this week with rain forecast on the Friday. A going stick reading of 6.6 around the time of penning this, with good in places, means we should probably base bets and selections on good to soft.
Cheltenham's opening 13:10 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase over 2m4f has the potential to be a cracking race for a punt with 25 holding entries and a "6/1 to the field" market.
A strong Irish challenge is evident in the entries with perhaps one of the most interesting in Marv Michael from Henry De Bromhead's yard.
The 6yo will go handicapping for the first time and he did impress on chase debut at Kilbeggan with a 7L victory and jumped well from the front. He's at 10/111.00 on the antepost book and he should be fine with good in any going description.
Paul Nicholls didn't start Chepstow's opening salvo in the manner he would have liked and Farnoge could be his representative for a first run over fences.
Harry Cobden was full of praise following his win at Ascot as a novice, crucially perhaps on good ground with Saturday in mind, and the rider earmarked him for some good races saying: "It's probably a bold statement but I could see him being a Graded horse. I'll have to get home and chat to the boss and see what he thinks, but he's very smart. It's exciting."
An opening mark of 132 is something to move with but Nicholls isn't electric at the moment in terms of form with 3-22 at 14% - a perfectly fine strike-rate, but under what the elite yard would be expecting.
Farnoge perhaps is a little too short for me at 8/19.00.
Imperial Saint at 14/115.00 for Philip Hobbs and Johnson White looks a stayer and, with plenty of pace guaranteed in this, he's one I am keen to back.
The 6yo is another set to make his chase debut after just five runs over hurdles. He landed a 0-120 Ffos Las win over hurdles as his sign off success in April.
If the ground is anything along the lines of good to soft, that will suit, and he does look strong at the end of his races - evident at Ludlow too. Plus, the Ludlow win was his first last season off a break so going fresh also is a plus.
It's a deep race but we've got four places and it's about time Hobbs and White made their mark in some good races, although the yard could be in better form.
Another appealing race at Cheltenham on Saturday is the 14:20 Handicap Chase over 3m1f with 21 entries with a max of 20 for the weekend.
The duffle coat clad Nigel Twiston-Davies usually starts early and landed this in 2017 with the likeable Cogry, and it's his Broadway Boy that is well clear at 4s on the Sportsbook.
Le Milos is a former Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase winner and has been in big races over staying trips, although the Bet365 at Sandown stretched him in terms of stamina. Dan Skelton would have been disappointed with how his season panned out last term.
Skelton labelled him a high-class horse that should stay in the Grand National but was beaten 36L in the 2023 race, and it may be time to revise where he goes and where we see him.
I am interested in Midnight Our Fred, especially as some rivals will have bigger targets down the line. The horse's record at Cheltenham makes him a big player for me at 10s.
He finished second to Hymac at the Cheltenham April meeting over 3m4f on the New Course, and Hymac is progressive but Midnight Our Fred travelled well in that. His other seconds were at the October and December meetings at Prestbury Park and, on some better ground with less emphasis on stamina, he's a player.
Soft isn't a problem and he handles it well, but he goes on good and bolted up 14L at Gowran Park three weeks ago, absolutely whizzing around over 2m4f.
He's fit, goes at the track and stays. There's a lot to like.
Back Midnight Our Fred EW
I'm still adjusting to calling Saturday's Group 1 at Doncaster The Futurity Trophy Stakes from the old Racing Post Trophy, and it's likely to be pretty testing for the weekend in the north.
We're dealing with soft on Tuesday and there's no dry days bar Friday.
I nearly choked on my cornflakes not seeing Aidan O'Brien with the favourite here and it's Wimbledon Hawkeye who has the honour at 7/24.50.
The juvenile impressed at Newmarket and it was good to hear Tim Gredley saying: "He has still got some more growing to do, which is why we were a bit hesitant about coming here today, but he did a nice bit of work here the other day when he walked all over a 90-rated horse, so we thought we'd swing the racket.
"We'll have a look at Doncaster but he's very much a next-year horse and we could have a Guineas horse on our hands. Beyond that we have some unfinished business in the Derby after Ambiente Friendly's near-miss this year."
Derby and 2,000 Guineas ahoy.
Seven of the AOB team sees Delacroix as his shortest in the betting at 5/16.00, and if you are asking me do I see him as a Classic winner? I would say no.
Anno Domini is the Charlie Appleby possible, but at 10/111.00 that's a fair reflection of his chances, or indeed running, as his two wins are on good and good to firm.
Considering he's the same price as Seaplane, I much prefer the Paul and Olly Cole runner's chances at 10s considering he, more than most, should be at home in soft conditions.
I liked his attitude when winning at Newmarket from the front in soft, as he'd been fresh and keen at Ascot previously (but that was off a 101-day break).
It does look the race for him and the right fit and the time of his 7f win at Newmarket was a good one on the clock considering the ground. He will have no issue stepping up to 1m and will get that trip standing on his head as a son of Golden Horn.