Tony Calvin Ante-Post Tips: 33/1 selection for Saturday's St Leger

Horse racing took a back seat for me in August - in fact I was positioned more in the boot as regards the attention I paid to the sport - and it didn't look like I had missed that much when I had a quick-fire catch-up last week.

But I was a touch surprised when I had my first look at the St Leger betting for over a month on Sunday afternoon.

New London was a touch of odds-on at 1.9720/21 on the exchange. What was that all about?

He was actually as low as 8/13 in places for the Classic on the fixed-odds front on Sunday, though he was best at 5/6 with the Betfair Sportsbook, so the race certainly looked to have fallen apart in the last few weeks, because I know he was available at over 3/1 on the exchange in early August.

There were 13 in the race before Monday's latest confirmation and supplementary stage - and we effectively lost two on Monday, namely fourth-favourite Secret State, and the Aidan O'Brien trio of Anchorage, Waterville and United Nations coming out and El Habeeb and Haskoy being supplemented - and the opposition to New London is decidedly underwhelming to say the least, as plenty have fallen by the wayside.

The most notable absentee was Irish Derby winner Westover, who heads for the Arc instead, and Voltigeur runner-up Secret State was a surprise no-show on Monday along with the Lingfield Derby Trial winner United Nations.

So little wonder New London's price has plummeted then, especially as the form of his Group 3 Gordon Stakes win at Goodwood on fast ground, in an excellent time, on July 28 could hardly have worked out any better. All the horses immediately behind him have boosted the form, to varying degrees, on their next starts.

The runner-up, gelding Deauville Legend, went on to beat Secret State by 2 ¾ lengths in the Voltigeur. Third-placed Hoo Ya Mal won as he should have done at heavy odds-on at Goodwood. The fourth-placed Jack Darcy finished second to a well-regarded sort in Lassaut at Deauville.

The fifth Cresta won a Windsor Listed race by 6 ½ lengths, and the sixth West Wind Blows easily won a Group 3 at Longchamp over the weekend.

So, yes, looking at the opposition I would possibly rather be with him than against him at around evens on the exchange (1.99 at the time of publishing) for what I consider to be the weakest English Classic I have seen at the five-day stage in recent years.

And I am saying that about a horse who has "only" won a handicap off 99 and a Group 3 on his last two starts.

However, remember, this horse was around 8/1 for the Derby after his Newmarket reappearance win and before his blow-out second at 4/11 to Changingoftheguard in the Chester Vase, a defeat that prompted connections to give him a two-month break. And that Goodwood race last time was effectively a Group 2 in all but name.

Even so, you will not be surprised to hear that I will not be recommending him at around evens here, five days away from the race - or even on the day, in all probability, as it simply isn't my style - but there could be a betting angle with him further down the line, which doesn't factor in the need for him to stay 1m6f115yd.

And his stamina is certainly not copper-bottomed on pedigree, even if his dam is related to the 2011 St Leger winner Masked Marvel.

And when I refer to a possible bet beyond Saturday I am of course referring to the Arc, for which he is a nibbled-at 19.018/1 on the exchange and 16/1 on the Sportsbook. I can certainly see the argument for him there as the Arc lacks any form depth behind Baaeed, and who knows whether he will rock up in France. Well, we won't until days before the race.

In the meantime we should at least give the favourite's Doncaster rivals on Saturday a thorough airing.

After all, the Derby runner-up Hoo Ya Mal is officially the highest-rated horse going into the race on 116, as opposed to the favourite's 115, and there are others you can eke out a case for.

Actually, we should get the going housekeeping out of the way first.

It is currently good (good to soft) ahead of the four-day meeting starting on Wednesday - they got another 2mm overnight on Monday - but if some forecasts are accurate then we could be looking at soft sooner rather than later. One site currently has 20mm+ arriving at Doncaster from Tuesday onwards, with rain every day, but others far less.

At least there is no need for the watering debate. Just another ground guess-up with the weather.
Whether a lot of the contenders will like it as deep as it may be on Saturday, I am not so sure. And the favourite's Chester defeat came on soft, though he won his maiden on that ground, so that is a concern of sorts.

The horses that are proven at 1m6f are Hoo Ya Mal, Giavellotto, Emily Dickinson and the Queen's Vase 1-2 of Eldar Eldarov and Zechariah, with the latter pair split only by a nose at Royal Ascot.

I am a little surprised to see Eldar Eldarov, soundly beaten in the Group 1 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris last time, as short as 4/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook (though 6.8 on the exchange), with Zechariah at twice the price given his impressive win at Newbury last time.

And, while Zechariah's best form has come on quick ground this season, but he did beat Westover by 2 ½ lengths on officially good to soft ground in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark in 2021, though Timeform called it good that day.

I may have missed some news but, given the above, Zechariah's exchange price of 17.016/1 puzzles me a touch in terms of generosity. Maybe connections won't play on soft ground.

Hoo Ya Mal is another with a big form chance who is relatively weak on the exchange at 11.010/1, but I must admit I wasn't impressed by his odds-on Goodwood success last time - though he did lose two shoes there - and I just wonder whether connections will want to risk bottoming him if it does turn very testing, with a trip to Australia in the offing.

The supplemented Haskoy is pretty short in the betting considering she only has a Wolverhampton novice win and a neck York Listed race success on her dance card, but against that she has the potential the pedigree and profile to attract some bettors.

And Ralph Beckett's prowess with fillies - if not diplomacy - is another point in her favour. But she has an awful lot to find for a horse (officially rated 105) disputing third favouritism.

However, I do know Ryan Moore was impressed by the filly at York, and her dam won on soft ground.

The O'Brien pair of Bluegrass and Emily Dickinson look more than a touch underwhelming from a form perspective, though French Claim's chances will probably increase the more it rains.

His pedigree suggests 1m6f would be a massive ask, but the Irish Derby third has already stayed further than he should have judged on his bloodlines, so maybe they can stretch the elastic a bit further.

He stuck on pretty doggedly at the Curragh to hold off Oaks winner Tuesday for third, and he is one of few proved on genuinely soft ground, which explains why he has shortened from 16/1 into 14/1.

I can see why they have chanced their arm in supplementing 100/1 poke El Habeeb in such a winnable year - the owner obviously has the cash, and he is splashing it - but I am going to throw the dice at one who won at that price on his debut last season.

Step forward Giavellotto at 33/1 win-only with the Sportsbook, or a similar price on the exchange (currently 40.0).

Trainer Marco Botti reckons he had £1 each way on the horse when he won at the three-figure price at Kempton on his debut over 1m3f last December (I wasn't aware there were juvenile races over 1m3f, even in the depths of winter) and he certainly has a big improver on his hands in Giavellotto.

And, while an official rating of 104 tells you what a job his horse has on his hooves here, you have to love his form trajectory since stepping up to 1m6f three starts ago, and with a hood applied on the last two.

You'd be a bit sick if you backed him when he was beaten a length off a mark of 88 over this course and distance three outings ago, and he goes and wins here, but that run confirmed he was a stayer all over, not a 1m2f horse, and he really should have won both races since.

His waywardness cost him the race in a 100k handicap on officially soft ground at Haydock on his following start - in the circumstances he did very well to fail by only ½ length to give a William Haggas improver 10lb there - and you had to love the way he powered home in the closing stages when winning on good to firm at Newmarket last time, extending his length lead at the furlong pole to five at the line.

That Newmarket form is full of holes in Classic terms - the runner-up was well stuffed on the same mark at York last time - but 33/1+ about this horse in a substandard year seems on the big side given his profile. I appreciate he could be a bigger exchange price on the day if the field stands up, but I had a small bet on him at 40s and 33s on Monday and I happy to recommend the same.

I appreciate he doesn't have the Group-race profile of a normal St Leger winner - connections were toying with the Melrose but they wanted to come here fresh - but this is clearly not a vintage year.

He is a guaranteed stayer, he is hopefully ground-versatile - while the official ground at Haydock was soft, Timeform called it good, and Botti is on record as saying the colt is happy with any ground ranging from good to soft to firm, so fingers crossed there - and he is very progressive.

He is a slow-burner according to Botti, but hopefully he can set the Donny house ablaze on Saturday.

Or if you know your Italian (Giavellotto means javelin, apparently) he can spear his rivals. I expect a drink if the punmeister generals in the commentary boxes on Saturday steal that line.
Good luck.