Newmarket 2000 Guineas Big Race Verdict: Appleby's Trail can be crowned the Classic King

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Computer says Gstaad - you're in

Aidan O'Brien's Gstaad has been playing the 2000 Guineas hokey cokey but "the lads" have decided, Aidan's computer is now working and Ballydoyle are after another early season Classic.

Gstaad was brilliant in last season's Coventry Stakes as a juvenile, often the race for O'Brien's tip top two-year-old, at the time earning a Timeform figure of 109+. He then went on to better that culminating in his final run of an industrious campaign when scooping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar.

O'Brien is peerless in this race, and is looking for his 11th 2000 Guineas victory, and while a fair bit is being made of him not winning the race since 2019 with Magna Grecia, represents quite a poor bet in my view at 3/14.00.

Boughey's star colt out to prove he's top drawer

Fresh-faced trainer George Boughey and fresher-faced jockey Billy Loughnane's combined age is around about my own, and while not anointed by god, Loughnane picking up this ride is quite something for such a young starlet.

Boughey has certainly been talking the talk with his star colt, saying: "I think he is a perfect size horse to win a Guineas. I think you need athleticism, you need balance and you need speed - you need a lot of things. The fact that he stayed and he has those as well - I wouldn't change how he is and, touch wood, it's enabled him to be incredibly sound and we've never had to do anything to him.

"His work is better on faster ground. He's a good moving animal and he wants top of the ground."

Boughey is no stranger to Classic success in his eight years of training, with Cachet a 1000 Guineas winner coming from his yard.

Bow Echo was sizzling on his debut at Newbury, and subsequently beat Publish at Haydock before rounding off season in the Royal Lodge. The last horse to complete the Royal Lodge/Guineas double was Frankel. Conditions will be perfect as he desires fast going, and with a Timeform rating of 128 he is only second to Gstaad at 129.

Pedigree buffs and naysayers will say he is bred for 10f, but he certainly isn't short of pace from what we've seen thus far.

He now has to prove the hype is deserved and do his stuff on the track.

The Appleby massive should not be written off

Charlie Appleby, the new Guineas force in recent years, is double-handed and his runners will be lined up like actors in the Pont De Neuf over the next three days at headquarters.

Distant Storm at 4/15.00 is shortest of the duo, and two from four in his career and held by Gstaad from their Dewhurst race, he really did look something special winning the Group 3 Tattersalls at Newmarket last August.

My preference is for Appleby's King's Trail, though, whose prep is far from a classic one with two wins at Kempton, but trainers seem to shun the Craven and a graveyard race for 2000 Guineas contenders and the Conditions race he landed in March on the All-Weather was the same race Notable Speech wno in 2024 en route to 2,000 Guineas glory.

Notable Speech had the famous push-button acceleration and ran 10.81 and 10.98 seconds in the final two furlongs with his Kempton win prior to Newmarket. That was off a finishing speed of 115% while King's Trail, visually just as good with the turn of foot, ran the final two furlongs at 11.15 and 11.73 but from a finishing speed of 107% and a better overall time at 1m38.22 to 1m40.

William Buick has opted for Distant Storm, but I reckon it was a close one.

Trials form unfancied by the Sportsbook

Oxagon beat Avicenna in the Craven, horses now officially rated 112 and 105, but with Hidden Force flopping of sorts, I can't have that as a piece of form. The pair are double figures at 10/111.00 and 12/113.00.

Alparslan won the Greenham Stakes from the front and is drawn in four to repeat the tactics but it might not pan so easily here compared to Newbury and once again the "trials form" is not fancied at all with Alparslan a drifter as of Friday morning into the afternoon from 12/113.00 to 16/117.00.

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Pace map with draw and tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: Alparslan (4), Into The Sky (3), Oxagon (10), Power Blue (9).

PROMINENT RACERS: Billecart (6), Gstaad (7), Into The Sky (3), King's Trail (13), Power Blue (9), Thesecretadversary (5), Venetian Prince (11).

MID DIVISION: Bow Echo (15), Gstaad? (7), Padraig Dawn (12).

HOLD-UP: Avicenna (8), Bow Echo (15), Distant Storm (2), Needle Match (1).

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Trainer form

Karl Burke: 8-33 at 23% last two weeks and 16-142 last five seasons at Newmarket at 11%.

Roger Varian: 7-23 at 30% last two weeks and 22-195 last five seasons at Newmarket 11%.

George Boughey: 0-16 last two weeks and 11-147 last five seasons at Newmarket at 8%.

Charlie Appleby: 1-13 last two weeks at 8% and 106-359 last five seasons at Newmarket at 30%.

Aidan O'Brien: 6-22 last two weeks at 27% and 12-101 last five seasons at Newmarket at 12%.

William Haggas: 6-30 last two weeks at 20% and 31-233 last five seasons at Newmarket at 13%.

John and Thady Gosden: 10-34 last two weeks at 29% and 40-285 last five seasons at Newmarket at 14%.

Robson De Aguiar: 2-14 last two weeks at 14%.

Fozzy Stack: 0-9 last two weeks.

Andrew Balding: 6-35 last two weeks at 17% and 32-291 last five seasons at Newmarket at 11%.

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Alan Dudman's 2000 Guineas 1-2-3

King's Trail remains my number one pick as the turn of foot at Kempton was potent and the way he made up ground effortlessly smacked of a classy horse who will get further with his pedigree and it's now surprise he has the Timeform 'p' and remains a horse in focus.

He has the potential against Gstaad, whose form is more established.

I expect a little better from Needle Match who looked well beaten in the Greenham Stakes behind Alparslan, but the winner had the rail and the run of the race with Needle Match looking like more of a stayer and will appreciate the step up in distance.

He ran one of the fastest furlongs to back that impression up at 7f at 12.08 and was quicker than the first four in front of him, including Albert Einstein.

Bow Echo's the hype runner. He should have the speed and ground to excel and, drawn in 15, could help near King's Trail at 13. There is pace from stalls nine and 10.

1) King's Trail

2) Bow Echo

3) Needle Match

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Now read Alan Dudman's Saturday Racing Multi Tips

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