Victoria Cup Big Race Verdict: Play two each-way at 11/1 in Ascot feature

Mudbir the favourite for the Gosdens

The Victoria Cup's 29 runners is the maximum field allowed and this traditionally is one of the handicap highlights in the early part of the season, but also one of the toughest to solve.

Mudbir is an obvious type - a two-time handicapper winner last season and an unxposed type for a top yard.

A mark of 95 could still potentially be lenient considering the profile and has a Timeform 'p' attached to his weight adjusted figure of 118.

His final run of the 2025 campaign saw him drawn badly from a mark of 95 at Goodwood, but he's berthed in 19 here with Oisin Murphy booked. The jockey has a superb record when used by John Gosden - currently at nearly 30% from 166 rides on the turf.

Six places each-way on the Sportsbook

The Sportsbook are paying six places for each-way bets for the race, and some of the early moves saw David Menuisier's Tribal Chief supported from 12/113.00 to 17/29.50. Jumby from 40/141.00 into 25/126.00 and Khafiz from 14/115.00 into 11/112.00.

I cannot say I have ditched Khafiz yet, as I backed him last time at Haydock and I am still undecided what his best trip is going to be so he looks worth sticking with for now.

The market seems to be undecided in terms of where to be for the draw. The top six on the Sportsbook are drawn nineteen, one, three, twenty-two, twelve and seventeen.

Those with previous Ascot form include Hickory, last year's winner and a horse who saves his best for Ascot. Twelve months ago Saffie Osborne came from off the pace and was at one stage a bit short of room, but he won off 85, and while higher now in the weights, is such a likeable sort at the track.

Drawn in 17 compared to 11 last year, he will have his conditions and Jamie Osborne had another contender in the declarations stages in Room Service (now out), but he's now left with one.

Pace Map and Draw

FRONT RUNNERS: Golden Mind? (23), Popmaster (2), Yorkshire (28).

PROMINENT: Royal Zabeel (10), Ten Pounds (29), Popmaster (2), Great Aclaim (12), Pellitory (16), Khafiz (18), Mudbir (19), Nostrum (4), Jordan Electrics (27), Morte Point (6), Storm Free (13).

MID-DIVISION: Witch Hunter (9), The Wizard Of Eye (26),Pellitory (16), Hickory (17), Aalto (11).

HOLD-UP: Witch Hunter (9), Golden Mind? (23), Completely Random (21), The Wizard Of Eye (26), Serengeti (20), Hoquetot (7), Pellitory (16), Hickory (17), Defence Minister (1), So Darn Hot (14), Shiplake (3), Nikovo (25), Shafdar (15), Jumby (24).

A double figure draw has been kind in the last 10 renewals of the Victoria Cup, and while Hickory ran in a field of 17 last term, he was drawn in 11. Since 2014, only one single figure draw has been successful and that was low in two and five drawn 20 or higher have won the race since 2014.

Trainer Form and Ascot record

John Gosden is almost top of the hot trainers list with a recent run of 21 winners from his last 70 runners sent out from Clarehaven at a strike-rate of 30%, and at Ascot in five years, Gosden is at 13%, although at 2-3 at the track already this term, that figure will come up.

Richard Hannon has sent out a lot of runners at Ascot in the last five season at 251, but only yields a 6% return as a strike-rate in that time.

Ed Walker is 19-131 in the last five terms at 14% and shows a decent +30.41 level stakes profit with his runners in that time.

The Victoria Cup Tips

I do believe Hickory is just a much better horse at Ascot, and last year's winner has a record here of 2,1,3,1 from last term and stays a mile here so the stiff 7f is very much his thing.

A mark of 96 requires and demands more, but he's certainly an each-way play.

Khafiz still interests me as I fancied him last time in a good handicap at Haydock. He finished fifth under prominent tactics from an inside draw in a race won by Cosi Belle. He didn't quite see out his race, and I floated the idea to myself if he could be a sprinter, but he has raced a couple of times over 1m and Ed Bethell must think he is worth sticking to this sort of distance.

Drawn high is a tick in the box is 18 and remains unchanged from his mark of 97.

Morte Point is a 25/126.00 candidate for an each-way tip. The four-year-old gelded son of Due Diligence has been quietly progressive on the All-Weather over 7f and looked as thought he was having a pipe-opener for the season at Newmarket last time.

At a track which favoured those ridden forwardly at HQ, Morte Point was held up in rear for his first run of the year and was never a factor.

His trainers Bill Muir and Chris Grassick are 9-57 at Ascot at 16% in the last five seasons and is an interesting 91-rated handicapper for some good races this summer.

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