Vanessa Ryle: Newbury may be Ebor stepping stone for Tasman Bay

One of the stories of the last week in racing, away from the dreaded whip debate, was Ralph Beckett and Rob Hornby's success with Prosperous Voyage in the Falmouth Stakes.

The feel-good factor around the victory of the filly was no doubt mainly due to the up and down few weeks connections had endured. For the trainer who enjoyed the high of winning the Irish Derby with Westover to then be brought shuddering back down to earth with the loss of Group One winner Scope - there is no sport quite like horseracing to provide the ultimate roller coaster ride. And plenty of other trainers endure such turbulence at every level.

Todds' fortunes change at Ffos Las

It would be fair to say that trainer Sir Mark Todd has had a year he would like to forget away from the racecourse and, as a result, he has had very few runners with winners hard to come by. However, a low key and very hot day at Ffos Las on Monday saw the maiden go the way of a debutant in the form of Time Step who Todd not only trains but also owns and led up on the day as well.

The three-year-old beat two horses ahead of him in the market from bigger yards with plenty of experience in fine style. It was an impressive start fom the Time Test colt whose performance, pedigree and physique increase the likelihood of him donning different silks next time, as there are bound to be some interested parties given what Chepstow both showcased and promised.

The victory will also have buoyed the trainer ahead of stable star Tasman Bay running at Newbury on Saturday. One of five declared in the listed Steventon Stakes over 1m2f, the four-year-old has an interesting entry in the Ebor next month and this may well be another step on the path to take a chance in that valuable handicap.

His form from last year reads exceptionally well, as he chased home the likes of subsequent Group One winners Hurricane Lane, Alenquer and Baaeed.

The reappearance run of Tasman Bay on his latest start at Ascot was nothing to write home about but the run came off the back of over 300 days off the track and is forgivable for that fact alone.

A better showing at Newbury on Saturday, over a trip that may well be his minimum now, would be an ideal next step before a tilt at the Ebor at York where he would be an interesting contender trying the 1m6f trip for the first time, having long since looked an out-and-out galloper.

Butler continues to fire

If Todd is an example of a smaller trainer having a less-than-ideal season then John Butler is a terrific example of a smaller trainer having a brilliant season.

Having already topped last year's tally of winners with more then five months of the year left to go, Butler is firing at a strike-rate almost double of that he managed in 2021.

This is set to be his best year to date by quite some way and he is currently operating at a 20% strike-rate with four winners from his last 20 runners.

That tally includes his latest winner, Breach, who was a recent transfer over from Ireland and won on yard debut for Butler at Lingfield on Wednesday. The filly was steered to victory by South African jockey Collen Storey, who has ridden over 200 winners in his homeland, but who was having just his second success on UK soil and is clearly a useful talent in the saddle for Butler to be able to call on.

Look out for Nafee at Nottingham

Butler's record with horses off a break and/or making their debut for his yard has been noteworthy this season and on Friday he saddles Nafee at Nottingham who ticks both of those boxes.

Having previously been trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, the gelding is lightly raced and was last seen disappointing on handicap debut at Kempton.

However, he is now a fascinating runner as he represents a whole clutch of unknowns: a yard switch, off a break, debuting on the turf, stepping up in trip, getting the weight for age in handicap and having shown some ability in his qualifying runs, which are all potential catalysts for a transformation for a trainer whose striking stats this season are going under the radar.