Alan Thompson has two selections today, both from the all-weather meetings at Wolverhampton and Lingfield...
"stepping up to twelve furlongs on handicap debut looks a very good move"
Thumur will enjoy this 12 furlongs today
Owen Burrows looks to have found a good opportunity to get Thumur's first career win. The three-year-old colt has shown plenty of ability in three novice runs so far. He's hit the line very strongly over 10 furlongs on both his 2020 starts and stepping up to 12 furlongs on handicap debut looks a very good move. He goes handicapping for the first time today and his opening mark of 81 doesn't look overly harsh. He ran well in defeat at York to finish fourth in what was potentially a warm novice and with the Burrows string in superb form, he's got massive claims of breaking his maiden.
Colonize could be a potential danger. The John Gosden colt ran on to finish third at Windsor on his most recent start and the step back up in trip, combined with the application of cheekpieces, means he could be there or thereabouts. Another interesting runner is Sir Michael Stoute's lightly raced Vindicate, owned by The Queen, he won an all-weather novice last year but has failed to impress in his two handicap starts to date. I think Thumar could be too good for these today.
Alnaseem's drop in class and trip makes her the pick
Winning on her second start for the in-form James Ferguson yard, the four-year-old filly Alnaseem was far from disgraced up in grade at Ascot on her latest outing. She finished fourth that day and it was obvious that she didn't get the trip. As a result though her mark has been left unchanged and she returns to the same level of competition as her prior Yarmouth victory. She's still lightly raced and this drop back in trip looks a good move to me, the best should be yet to come from the filly and she can make the most of her good low draw coming out of stall two.
The current market favourite is Tintoretto from the slightly out of form Tom Ward stable. I am sure they will get back on the winning trail soon but they haven't had a winner from their last 10 runners. However, Tintoretto has always been a better horse on the all weather where three of her four wins have come, but others are preferred today. A bigger danger at an each-way price could be Mohamed Moubarak's filly Royal Dynasty, who never seems to run a bad race and at 9/1 she could be the one to chase home Alnaseem.
2020 (prior to this week) : +0.69pts
This week so far...
Staked: 2 Pts
Returned: 0 pts
2020 P&L -1.31 pts
2019 P&L +0.31 pts
2018 P&L +82.29 pts
2017 P&L +53.30 pts
2016 P&L +15.23 pts