Today's Horse Racing Tips: Model Guest can break her maiden tag in this weak novice

Kempton finish
Model Guest will be too good for these

Two seconds for Alan yesterday, with one trading at 1.111/9 in running. Today he has two more selections from Kempton and Beverley...

"...finishing third at Ascot in a stakes race off a mark of 88. If she can run to that sort of form today she will be hard to stop."

Back Model Guest @ 4/1 in the 14:50 Kempton

Model Guest has the experience and quality to win this

Back Model Guest @ 4/1 in the 14:50 Kempton

It will be disappointing if Model Guest can't break her maiden today for Archie Watson. She joined this stable after running in some quality events for George Margarson, rated 90 at her peak. The four-year-old filly was running in Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps, as well as finishing third at Ascot in a stakes race off a mark of 88. If she can run to that sort of form today she will be hard to stop. She went down by half a length on her debut for Watson earlier this month suggesting she might be getting back to her best so unless there is something special in the field we haven't seen before she sets a high standard in a weak looking novice contest.

John Gosden has the market leader in the shape of Mostly who is making her first start following a wind operation. She made a promising enough start to her career when finishing second of 20 in minor event at Newmarket on debut and is sure to improve for that run. But she is bred for further than this trip and this was shown by pushing the winner all the way to the line on her only start. She's been off nine months and I think she might just need this run and at the odds I would rather be with Model Guest.

Ginger Jam loves it at Beverley

Back Ginger Jam @ 11/2 in the 15:40 Beverley

He may well be 3lbs above his most recent success but Ginger Jam makes huge appeal here. Nigel Tinkler's charge loves it round here and is a perfect four from four over this course and distance with the ground coming right for him. Faye McManoman is taking another 5lbs off his back this afternoon, for a claimer she has had plenty of rides around here and still boasts a nine percent success rate at the track. He was only beaten a length and a quarter from 2lbs higher at Doncaster earlier in the season so this mark is still well within his ability, he looks to be a little bit of value to me especially at his favourite stomping ground, with a low draw.

The draw is huge player especially of this trip at Beverley which is why James Watt could run a big race, Paul Midgley's charge comes out of stall three and although he hasn't won since May 2018 (19 starts ago) he does look well treated on old form and there have been positive signs this season and this bigger field/stronger gallop scenario should suit him well. Another that is open to improvement is Shepherds Way for Julie Camacho but from stall 15 he has got plenty of work to do, to be competitive from there.

2020 (prior to this week) : +0.69pts

This week so far...

Staked: 4 Pts
Returned: 0 pts

2020 P&L -1.31 pts
2019 P&L +0.31 pts
2018 P&L +82.29 pts
2017 P&L +53.30 pts
2016 P&L +15.23 pts

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