Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Tennessee fancied to strike in Irish Derby on Sunday

• Cam Lambourn prove Epsom was no fluke?

• Expect more from Arras and different tactics from Tennessee Stud

• Alan Dudman previews the Irish Classic at the Curragh with his 1-2-3 verdict 

Lambourn odds-on looking to create history

Nineteen horses have completed the Epsom/Curragh Irish and English Derbies and Lambourn, the most unlikely hero from Epsom is looking to make it a magic eight to complete the Derby set from Ballydoyle.

As the 4/51.80 favourite, the Sportsbook layers aren't giving away any gifts. Epsom third Tennessee Stud is a solid enough 9/25.50 and 5/16.00 shot, while the drifter is Derby runner-up Lazy Griff - who has virtually doubled in price from 11/26.50 to 9/110.00 as of Saturday morning. At the expense of Lazy Griff being pushed out, both Green Impact 15/28.50 into 11/26.50 and Pride Of Arras 9/110.00 into 7/18.00 have been cut.

If there's one horse from Epsom that hated every single second of that jeopardy course it was Pride Of Arras, and his Dante win was in stark contrast to his 50 length near-last and near-lapped effort.

Form - and the likely improvers

Taking a positive view of the form from Epsom is difficult as there were too many limp kites in the race. Timeform rated Lambourn's win fairly lowly at a figure of 122, and you have to go back to 2013 for a worse one with Ruler Of The World's 120.

Both of Lambourn's wins at Epsom and Chester in the Vase came on officially good ground although on times Epsom looked more good to soft.

2 (5)

Lambourn (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

Ding-dong and round three between Lazy Griff and Lambourn, but with two defeats behind him, it's understandable to see him so weak in the betting in terms of reversing the form. Trainer Charlie Johnston admitted earlier in the week that a late decision was going to be made as he doesn't want fast ground and would like some rain.

Whether my Norwegian weather app is accurate we will see, and whether there's enough rain tomorrow which is forecast for the afternoon really will help or hinder him.

3 (4)

Lazy Griff (Ger)

• J: William Buick
• T: Charlie Johnston
• F:

Lazy Griff is improving, though, and looks a strong stayer too, and the Curragh will suit. But he's a winner in France and wants rain so we might just have to sit and wait.

Tennessee Stud has nearly five lengths to find on Epsom form with Lambourn but did post his best Timeform figure in the Derby with 114+ - which was a 15lb improvement from his defeat in the Ballysax and could have been closer with a different sort of ride as he fared best of those held up from the pace.

His stamina looks more in tune with a St Leger as he certainly gave his rider at Epsom a generous response.

9 (10)

Tennessee Stud (Ire)

• J: D. B. McMonagle
• T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien, Ireland
• F:

Pride Of Arras has to be the one to completely forget Epsom. His York win in the Dante was best of the Classic Trials this year and Timeform's 119p for that puts him well on par with Lambourn's shock Classic win. "He's come out of Epsom well, we're just still scratching our heads why he ran so badly," said Patrick Cooper, the owner's Racing Manager.

"It's a bit of a mystery, he obviously didn't handle the hill and Rossa (Ryan, jockey) was easy on him once he knew he couldn't participate in the finish, but we still don't know truly what went wrong, so we can go to the Curragh and hopefully find out more there."

As Ralph Beckett said: "We're allowed a bad day aren't we?"

Green Impact won the Listed Glencairn Stakes over 1m1f last time on good ground and beat Delacroix in as juvenile. His stamina is unproven, although on pedigree his dam offers plenty of staying ability, and considering he made all at Leopardstown recently over 9f, he was not ridden like a horse with a stamina doubt.

He has two pieces of winning form on good and one on good to soft, but for a Classic, I prefer proven stamina. Puppet Master won the Lingfield Derby Trial and he's almost been forgotten about as a drifter from 11/112.00 out to 16/117.00 on the Sportsbook. He earned a Timeform 111p for his Trial win, which as a figure, is just shy of a race average to win at Lingield, but I think he will stay well and the 16/117.00 price is big for him.

Serious Contender was beaten into second in the King George V Stakes Handicap just 10 days at Royal Ascot from a mark of 92 and while his trained by master "commisare technico" the idea of him improving 20lbs in ten days is very remote.

Pace map and who makes the running

With Aidan O'Brien holding five Irish Derby cards in his pack from 10 runners, I am not entirely sure what to expect here with the tactics. Lambourn obviously made the running and wasn't for catching at Epsom, but with four team-mates I imagine something else will go on and take him into the race. Likewise tactics for Tennessee Stud might need to be assessed.

I have included him on run style from Epsom but surely he'll need a more aggressive ride?

Front-runners: Lambourn, Green Impact?, Thrice, Sir Dinadin (possibly as pacemaker)

Prominent racers: Thrice, Tennessee Stud?, Pride Of Arras, Serious Contender, Lazy Griff, Sir Dinadin.

Mid-division/held-up: Tennessee Stud? Puppet Master.

Trainer form: 

Aidan O'Brien: 9-49 at 18% last two weeks, and 17-82 since 30th May at 20%. 

Ralph Beckett: 12-56 at 21% last two weeks, and 17-108 since 30th May at 16%. 

Charlie Johnston: 18-65 at 28% last two weeks, and 28-128 since 30th May at 22%. 

Jessica Harrington: 3-28 at 11% last two weeks, and 1-43 at the Curragh this season at 2%. 

Joseph O'Brien: 9-69 at 13% last two weeks. 11 from 48 at the Curragh this term at 23%.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Verdict: 

Lambourn's Epsom performance might turn out to be a very shaky piece of form. Timeform Ratings tells us it wasn't a vintage race, which is the only reason I want to shy away from Lambourn at the price as he repesents zero value at odds-on. 

Tennesse Stud is the one that interests me to improve straight outta Surrey. 

Joseph O'Brien was pretty positive about him on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast this week, saying the plan was to go forward in terms of tactics at Epsom but he just wasn't quick enough. O'Brien mentioned the Curragh test will suit him and I agree. 

He's by sire of the moment Wootton Bassett and his dam hails from the Sadlers Wells line, so there's plenty in the pedigree for a confirmed stayer, and he ran that way at Epsom. 

Tennessee Stud is my number one pick and for places, I can see Puppet Master outrunning his price of 16/117.00. 

That's a little too big for a Lingfield Derby Trial winner, and the race there came on good to firm. He was niggled and pushed at Leafy and is another who should stay well granted the predicted pace, and he hasn't got too much to find with Lambourn from their Ballysax run earlier in the season, a race Puppet Master was having a nice prep in and spin for the season. 

I have to include Pride Of Arras on his Dante run, as bad horses don't win Dantes. At 7/18.00 we still need to find where we are with him and Beckett did win this race with Westover in 2022. And while the York form has taken a few hits and knocks, the hope here is that a more conventional track will suit rather than running on a roller skate park. 

1) Tennessee Stud 

2) Pride Of Arras 

3) Puppet Master 

Now read more tips and previews for Sunday here!