Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey's six to back including two in the Betfair Hurdle

It's a very tricky set of races to assess from a tipping point of view on Saturday at Newbury. In the main, it's down to small field sizes however, there is also the fact we have so many short-priced favourites who should win but carry doubts.

I've taken a different approach therefore, and instead of homing in on a few races in detail, I'm spreading my bets across the Saturday ITV televised contests from Newbury.

Bravemansgame can give weight away

We begin with the excellently named, Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices' Limited Handicap Chase which is for 5yo+ over 2m7f at 13:15. Bravemansgame currently heads the betting as the 8/11 favourite to take this race on route to a potential run at the Cheltenham Festival.

I'm finding it very difficult to see past Bravemansgame winning this race well. When backing this horse, you're essentially backing him to defy the current Paul Nicholls form. That is the biggest question this horse has to answer.

Normally, when a yard is underperforming, the 'Saturday horses' still give their running, defying the logic of stable form. However, it was clear that at Leopardstown with Frodon and Greaneteen, that wasn't the case. Both top class performers cut out tamely when coming under even the smallest bit of pressure.

I still believe that Bravemansgame will win this race and will win it well as I'm not sure how many are well handicapped in behind.

Bravemansgame is also putting three runners out of the handicap and if he jumps in his usual manner, he should be incredibly difficult to live with.

Newbury is a track you need to jump well at and even with the weight Bravemansgame is giving away, he really should be bossing this race.

Polish to win back-to-back renewals

The following contest is a 0-145 Handicap Hurdle over 3m at 13:50 where certain trends are favoured judged on recent renewals.

Ideally, it's worth siding with a six-year-old who is rated as close to 130 as possible. The trends show that hold up performers have a good record and horses coming into this race with at least one start that season to their name, are also favoured. If the horse ran well last time out in a Pertemps qualifier or in the Lanzarote, that is another plus. A break of at least one month since their latest outing is something to consider also.

Unfortunately, the first trend has to be discarded instantly as there are no six-year-olds in this year's renewal. Therefore, I've had to switch tack and take a closer look at the seven-year-olds.

It's understandable why The Brimming Water is the current market leader at the time of writing as he's the rated 127 and has posted two solid runs on his latest couple of outings. He only has a three week break since his latest start and he was well enough beaten into third at Haydock.

Therefore, my slight preference in this race is for Polish who looks to have been aimed at this race. The winner of this contest last year, he's able to run off the same mark as for that success of 130.

Of course, he hasn't fired this season in three hurdle starts following his flat win at Goodwood in October. However, this race has certainly looked the plan for Polish.

He should be ridden with restraint once again which is a positive and he's had one month since his latest outing. He ticks the most boxes so is chanced to make it back-to-back wins in the race.

Clan can defy stable form

The first graded contest on Newbury's card is the Grade 2 Denman Chase over 2m7f at 14:25 where Clan Des Obeaux bids to go one better than he did in the race last year.

Clan Des Obeaux should be winning this as another short priced favourite for Paul Nicholls.

Again, this horse is only an even money shot because of the Nicholls form at present when in reality, he should be shorter in this race if all had been hunky dory at Ditcheat.

If Bravemansgame wins then the price should shorten about Clan Des Obeaux. Of course, it's going to be hugely informative how Clan's stablemate fares which will have an implication on this tentative market either way.

Clan Des Obeaux finished second in this race last year and his gallant run in the King George last time out was a very fair one. We know his brilliant record around Kempton speaks for itself but even so, his run was certainly worth upgrading.

He sat close enough to the frenetic pace set by Frodon and Minella Indo, unlike the eventual winner, Tornado Flyer who was held up. Clan Des Obeaux was challenged a long way out by his stablemate Saint Calvados who forced the pace on, taking Clan Des Obeaux with him.

The trends of making a reappearance start in the King George were always going to be against Clan Des Obeaux anyway so a fortunate, admittedly, second place was very fair.

He has good to soft ground on a flat track again in this race so all conditions should be in his favour and he can get back to winning ways.

Conditions will suit Sceau Royal

The following race at Newbury is the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase over two miles at 15:00. This is a much more open affair than many of the earlier contests for all there are only four runners.

Of course, it's a huge shame that Editeur Du Gite is a non-runner after his bloodwork showed something amiss.

I was torn between the top two in the market for this race, between Funambule Sivola who is a horse I love and Sceau Royal. I had really wanted Funambule Sivola to go for the Grand Annual so I'm slightly perplexed as to why he is running in this race. It's intriguing of course and Venetia Williams certainly isn't a trainer to make errors so it's significant Funambule Sivola is running here.

Added to that, Williams also has Brave Seasca running at Warwick on Saturday as well and he too, had looked a very live Grand Annual contender.

I'm marginally going to side against Funambule Sivola with Sceau Royal. He is the proven class act at this level and displayed that when winning this race last year. In that comfortably success, he defeated Champ by two-lengths, with Greaneteen 10 further lengths back in third and Fanion D'Estruval in fourth.

Sceau Royal had all conditions in his favour then and he essentially, has the same set of conditions here a year later. He's solely run over hurdles this season but we know he's just as effective over fences.

He should be able to take this transition back over fences and with no rain in the forecast either, he has optimal conditions.

Chance two in the Betfair Hurdle at decent prices

I couldn't resist a play in the Betfair Hurdle at 15:35 to round off my best bets for Newbury on Saturday. This is of course, the feature race on Saturday and for all it's disappointing there are only 14 declared runners, it's still an ultra-competitive contest.

Sifting back through the trends of recent years there are plenty of key points that stand out. Firstly, five and six-year-olds have a solid record in the race. Ideally you want to be siding with a horse rated 133-146 but 141 is optimal. For all the pace appears to hold up, the race tends to go to a horse happy to take a lead, hold their position well and come with a late challenge. Therefore, I'm trying to side with a horse who will be ridden with more restraint, even in this reduced field.

The conditioning for this looks significant so a horse with three starts already in the season is favoured. Of course, it goes without saying nowadays with this race, but if a horse ran well in a graded novices' hurdle last time out, that is a big plus. A decent break since a horse's latest start is another positive, two months is an ideal layoff to be coming into this race off.

I narrowed the race down to five initially. The first horse to look at is Broomfield Burg who ticks plenty of boxes. I fear that now he's learnt to settle better, he may be ridden too far forwards in this race and is in danger of blowing his lid too soon. He also didn't run in a graded race last time out.

I Like To Move It was another who had much in his favour however, he's a horse who likes to try and make all. He also didn't run well in the Kennel Gate last time out which leaves me lukewarm on his chances.

Tritonic should have a very good chance but he does have to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle last time out for all that was a tough task. I will probably be having a small saver on Tritonic all the same.

However, the main selection is yet another Paul Nicholls horse- I can hear the chorus of heckles being flung my way. This may well be the weekend that the Nicholls' horses come back to themselves and I don't want to be one sat on the side-lines cursing that I didn't back a horse who was solid on paper.

Knappers Hill has the perfect profile for the Betfair Hurdle. He's a six-year-old, rated 135, he's also likely to take a lead. He's had three starts this season and he ran well enough to finish third in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate last time out behind Jonbon at Ascot. That race was on 17th December so he's had a perfect amount of time off the track to return for a tilt at the Betfair Hurdle. I think he would be a much shorter price had the yard form not been so shaky but I will still chance him to win at 7.06/1.

The other horse I want to have an each-way saver on is First Street at 15.014/1. Admittedly, he didn't run in a graded race last time out but he may as well have as he trounced a field of handicap hurdlers by 7 ½ lengths.

He has a very likeable, improving profile and he's running off the ideal mark for this race on 141. He should have plenty more to come and he is still only in his novice season which is another positive. He may be continue to be another smart horse to come out of the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle where he finished fifth earlier in the season.

He's only had one month since his latest outing but that is the only flaw in his otherwise, solid profile for this race.