Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey fancies Dark Shift to add to his course record

Chance two in York handicap

The first race to take aim at is the 0-105 Dash Handicap at 14:40 which, for a race entitled a "Dash", actually comes over 6f. Of course, with this being a large sprint handicap, the race is wide-open.

The trends for this race are very revealing where five-year-olds have a good record. There is a definite sweet spot in terms of a rating for this contest which is between 94 and 96.

Middle to high draws have been favoured in recent years, as have horses who are ridden prominently. Ideally, a horse will come into this race on the back of five runs or more. Finishing mid-division in a sprint handicap last time out at Newcastle or in the Scottish Stewards' Cup has been seen to a winning effect in recent years. That latest start should have come eight days to one month ago.

Initially, I had my list shortened down to five runners but upon further investigation, that was cropped to two.

The first being Venturous who has already been clipped in to 9.08/1 from 21.020/1 as his price continues to collapse.

Venturous won this race last year off a 2lb higher mark than he's running off this time around.

He was drawn in 10 of 14 whereas he's now in 7 of 15 which still sees him well birthed. He was on the go last season for a year prior to his success in this race and he's followed a similar path this time around with plenty of runs to his name.

Incidentally, he again, comes into this race on the back of a sixth-place finish however, this year that finishing position was achieved in a higher calibre of race.

He again, is likely to be held up which hasn't necessarily been favoured in recent years but considering the plentiful other boxes he ticks, that can be overlooked to an extent. He is very well treated to gain back-to-back successes in this race.

The other runner I like is another course and distance winner in Nomadic Empire who had a very good time of things last season as a three-year-old. He hasn't been able to carry that progression forwards in his five starts so far this season.

As a result of his underwhelming season so far, he's fallen 5lb in the handicap to a very feasible mark should be rediscover his form of last campaign

. He is well drawn here in 11 of 15 for a prominent racer and has an optimal amount of runs this season with five. He also has a perfect turnaround time with his last run coming on 9th July.

That run was when trailing home last of the 20 runners in a Heritage Handicap at Ascot when refitted with cheekpieces. He was never able to feature in that run after remaining in rear throughout before weakening out of things.

That run was too bad to be true and off a 3lb lower mark, he's worth chancing to bounce back considering the profile he has for this contest.

Course form all important

We have a cracking contest at Ascot at 15:00 which is the International Stakes, a Heritage Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f.

Again, the trends reveal some interesting factors. The first being the record that four-year-olds have in this race however, age doesn't seem to have a huge bearing overall. Horses rated 95-103 are within the ideal bandwidth but horses who are rated slightly higher, also cannot be dismissed on this factor alone.

Middle to high draws have been favoured historically as have prominent racers who tend to come up the centre of the track. Ideally, a horse comes here on the back of two runs in their season and that latest start should have been a decent enough effort. Horses who ran in a Royal Ascot handicap on their latest outing have been seen to good effect with that run therefore, coming about five weeks ago.

I was initially tearing my hair out with this race when running these trends as I had to go into depth with 14 different runners. Each horse required further analysis in the context of this race, showcasing just how competitive this year's renewal is.

Eventually, I landed on two runners. The first being Dark Shift who is available at 6.511/2 and is a highly progressive four-year-old who should have more to come still. He has a brilliant record on the straight track at Ascot and proved that again last time out when winning the Royal Hunt Cup.

That was as competitive a renewal of the Royal Ascot contest as any other year. He has a further 6lb rise to defy but his revised mark sees him right in the sweet spot in terms of a rating for this race on 102. He is well drawn in stall 10 of 22 to give him options but hopefully, will mean he's ridden up the centre of the track.

He has an optimal amount of runs this season with three under his belt and of course, he ticks the box of running well at the Royal meeting on his latest start.

He is a strong traveller who gets one mile very well but still possesses a potent turn of foot which sees him just as effective over seven furlongs.

He should have every chance of bringing up a seventh win from 12 career starts.

The other consideration I cannot leave unbacked at 13.012/1 is Aratus in the hope of him rediscovering his form from last season. He too, has had three starts so far this season which is optimal. However, he hasn't been seen in quite the same light as Dark Shift within those runs.

He completed a four-timer last season after winning all three of his outings in 2021. He was far too keen on his reappearance and raced on the unfavourable near side of Leicester which saw him finishing last of three in a Listed race.

He ran a much better race in the Victoria Cup where he settled better but again, raced on the less favoured part of the track.

He posted an even better effort than the form figure suggests last time out when 10th in the Royal Hunt Cup behind Dark Shift. Again, his unlucky run of draw and positioning surfaced where he raced in the unfavoured group on the near side.

This drop back in trip is likely to suit his free going tendencies and he's able to run off a 1lb lower mark. He has another big handicap in him and this may well be his day.

Classic generation to take King George

The feature race of the weekend is undoubtedly the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 15:35. .

This is a fantastic renewal even with just six runners which of course, has been the subject of debate recently. However, there aren't many horses in this division missing from this year's line-up. Of course, it's a shame the Derby winner, Desert Crown was met with a setback which ruled him out of the race. Then we lack Hukum who also, is currently side-lined through injury.

Apart from those two, there aren't too many who could have really thrown their hat in the ring with a serious challenge.

I was back and forth with this race where I must have sided with each runner at one stage. However, by process of elimination, I finally landed on a selection.

I hugely respect Mishriff who I think was very unlucky in the Coral-Eclipse when stuck in a pocket. A run that has seen the partnership of David Egan and Prince A A Faisal severed. James Doyle takes over in the saddle which is no downgrade. My biggest concern about Mishriff's chances is his ability to stay 1m4f in this country against proper stayers at the trip.

Of course, John Gosden's charge has won a Sheema Classic over 1m4f and finished second in this race last year. However, I think he is an exceptional horse over 1m2f and this extra two furlong stretches him to his limit which is a concern.

Of course, Emily Upjohn is hugely favoured by the weight-for-age allowance and the sex allowance she receives. It was unfortunate she wasn't able to take her chance in the Irish Oaks after travel complications last weekend. That does mean that she comes to Ascot with a huge chance and she is clearly, very talented.

I don't think this year's three-year-old filly crop is as good as the colts though and that is the biggest query I have about Emily Upjohn's chances. She was unlucky in the Oaks at Epsom, there is no doubt there. However, Tuesday ran well below herself in the Irish Derby which starts to ask further questions of the division.

I think the colt Classic generation is stronger than the fillies which means I have come back full circle to Westover who will again, be partnered by Colin Keane after taking the ride on him to win the Irish Derby.

That was a weak renewal of the Irish Classic however, it was hugely impressive how Westover won. Piz Badile finished second and has been subsequently well beaten in the Grand Prix de Paris which again, is a form query.

Westover had previously been thought of as a St Leger horse but I think he possesses a much superior turn of foot than many give him credit for.

No doubt, Keane will want to make sure this is a true test over the 1m4f trip to run the sting out of some faster rivals.

With the weight he receives from Mishriff, I think this race will again go to a three-year-old in the form of Westover.