Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey chances a rank outsider at Newmarket

Newmarket
Kate Tracey gives a chance to the rank outsider in Newmarket's opener
  • It's a big weekend in the world of horseracing and Kate Tracey has taken aim at races at Newmarket and Ascot on Saturday.
  • Kate chances the outsider of the entire field in her first bet before more each-way plays with value to be found...

Play the outsider in open handicap

We begin the action on Saturday with the first race at Newmarket which is a 0-105 Premier Fillies' Handicap over 1m2f at 13:31. This race has some very evident trends to follow from recent renewals.

Three-year-olds have a solid record in the race which makes sense due to their unexposed nature and the fact that this race gets mostly horses of that age contesting it. There is a specific rating that has been seen to winning effect in the last four runnings of this race. Those four winners were rated 88 or 89. High draws have also been favoured in the main but there hasn't been any evident running style which has suited.

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Ideally a horse hasn't had a heavy campaign with only three or four runs that season and it doesn't matter if the horse had breaks throughout the year. It is a positive if the horse reached the frame last time out in a Class 3 or 4 Handicap and even better if that run came around a fortnight ago.

Initially, I had been interested in the handicap debutant, Crystal Estrella trained by Sir Michael Stoute. She is the perfect age as a three-year-old and has an ideal rating of 89 with a high draw. However, she's likely to be ridden prominently and only has two runs to her name this season with her latest outing coming on 20th May.

Despite her costing a small fortune for her new connections, I'm omitting her as a bet in this race for all she's likely to prove better than this opening mark in time.

Instead, I like the chances of the outsider of the field, Suzy's Shoes who is available at 26.025/1.

Admittedly, Suzy's Shoes has to take a serious step forward here on what she's shown in her career so far, but I think she has plenty of further mileage in this mark.

Eve Johnson Houghton's filly remains very unexposed and she ticks an awful lot of boxes to boot. This filly is the ideal age, she has a high draw in stall 9 and she's likely to be ridden in mid-division.

She also ticks the box for running well to place in a Class 3 handicap last time out where she was far from disgraced in finishing second when dropped back to this trip which suited.

Off the same mark, carrying bottom weight with Georgia Dobie booked to ride again to take a further 3lb off her back, she has a good chance of outrunning her price.

Don't underestimate the Force of Maya

There are some cracking, competitive races at Ascot on Saturday- none more so than the Group 3 Bengough Stakes over 6f at 15:00. Any number of chances can be given to this field but the one who catches my eye due to her price is Gale Force Maya at 11.010/1.

One of the themes of the season has been mares turning into star sprinters, the most notable of which being Highfield Princess of course. However, Gale Force Maya cannot be forgotten for her improvement this campaign over sprinting trips.

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Michael Dods's mare began the season winning a handicap off a mark of 98 before struggling in a couple of listed runs. She got back to winning ways when returned to handicap company at York in June and has barely looked back since.

She is already a five-time winner this season, three of those coming at York but she proved herself away from the Knavesmire last time out to win a Fillies' Listed contest at Ayr.

She is a tough filly and if she gets on to the front end of the pace, she is incredibly difficult to pass. That is going to be a tricky tactic to implement to winning effect at Ascot admittedly, but she has more than earnt her place in this Group 3 line-up.

She is as genuine as they come and is likely to give her running to finish in the frame at least.

Fresh can land the hattrick

It's on to another super competitive handicap at Ascot in the form of the Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap over 7f at 15:36.
I have once again, run the trends for this contest which reveal plenty of interesting factors to consider.

Ideally, it's worth siding with a three-year-old due to their unexposed nature but also their physical development at this stage of the campaign as it will be fully established.

Horses rated 101-104 must be considered but the bigger bias has been horses drawn high. In the last 19 renewals of this race, horses drawn in stall 10 or higher have won 13 times with a real emphasis on those drawn more towards the stand side rail. Last year was a notable anomaly where, in the heavy ground, the 1-2 raced on the far side.

I'm playing the overall percentages with the draw in this race and I'm still siding with those drawn high. Horses who are ridden with restraint tend to be slightly more favoured as are those with five runs to their name this campaign.

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It is a positive if a horse ran two to six weeks ago and that run was a decent one in a Class 2 Handicap or better.

The horse who ticks plenty of boxes for me therefore, is Fresh who is still a fair price at 7.06/1 despite being at the head of the market.

James Fanshawe's runner bids for a hattrick here back over his favourite course and distance where he should have everything in his favour once more.

He is nicely drawn in stall 16, off just a 1lb higher mark than for his neck win last time out over this track and trip which is very fair.

His hold up style should be suited again and he looks to have more to offer off this mark.

I am admittedly, fearful of the live dangers represented by River Nymph and Rhoscolyn who both, must also be considered but my main play is certainly Fresh.

Recommended bets

Kate's P/L

Staked: 132pts

Returns: +184.31

Overall: +52.31

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