Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Tips: Get on the Paddington express at 5.5

Curragh
The Irish 2000 Guineas is Saturday's highlight

Mark Milligan previews the the second day of the Irish Guineas meeting and expects Aidan O'Brien to land the big one...

  • Paddington to scoop the 2000 Guineas

  • Jet to roar back after disappointing 2022

  • Mashhoor solid with doubts over main rivals


The Group 1 Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (15:40) is the highlight of Saturday's card at the Curragh and the pair that head the betting are the second and third from the Newmarket equivalent, though not in the order that they placed last time.

Royal Scotsman finished a rather unlucky third behind Chaldean on the Rowley Mile a couple of weeks ago, with big outsider Hi Royal just ahead of him in the runner-up spot but that form could well be reversed this time as Paul Cole's charge had a bit of a nightmare passage that day.

Hampered after a couple of furlongs and then unable to obtain a run while the race was developing ahead of him, it's not stretching it to say Royal Scotsman may even have beaten Chaldean had things panned out better for him and he's probably a worthy favourite.

Hi Royal was sent off a 125/1 shot at Newmarket but belied those odds with a really good effort and may have done even better had he not hung across the track.

That form was well ahead of anything he'd achieved previously and his task is to go out now and prove that wasn't just a one-off, though he's still open to progression with only four starts under his belt.

Curragh - 15:40 - Back Paddington at 5.59/2

While Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman set a clear standard on their Newmarket form, I'm going to take them on with Paddington, who's open to plenty of improvement himself after just four starts, winning the last three of them.

Somewhat surprisingly, Aidan O'Brien hasn't won the Irish 2000 Guineas since 2017, where he was triumphant with Churchill, but there are sounds reasons for thinking this son of Siyouni can break that drought.

The selection has gradually been making his way though the ranks having taken a Curragh 20-runner maiden on just his second start as a juvenile and scored a fluent win in handicap company on his seasonal return at Naas in March.

He then took the step up to listed company in his stride when returning to the Curragh last time, where he comfortably took care of Drumroll and Mister Mister.

Paddington will obviously need to improve again as he makes the step up to the top level for the first time, but he looks very much the type to keep going the right way now he's up and running and it looks significant that he's the choice of Ryan Moore from Ballydoyle's trio of runners in the race.

Back Paddington at

5.5

Curragh - 14:30 - Back Twilight Jet at 7/2+

The 6f Weatherbys Ireland Greenland Stakes (14:30) is far from being the strongest Group 2 ever run and it could present a good opportunity for Twilight Jet to get back on track after a rather stuttering 3-y-o campaign.

A precocious and speedy juvenile, Michael O'Callaghan's sprinter looked better than ever when winning on his return at Naas last season, but things went wrong for him on his only other two starts of the campaign.

He was reported to have scoped dirty when finishing last of all in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and ended up on the less-favoured side in the July Cup at Newmarket on his only other 2022 start.

Twilight Jet been given plenty of time since then and with a proven track record of going well fresh, this contest could well be the one where he gets back on the up, particularly as he's facing some exposed, older rivals who we know plenty about.

Back Twilight Jet at

7/2+

Curragh - 15:05 - Back Mashhoor win only at 3/1+

With doubts surrounding both Ottilien and Run For Oscar, Johnny Murtagh's Mashhoor could well be the one to be with in the 1m 4f Listed FBD Hotels Resorts Orby Stakes at 15:05.

He ran a decent enough race when mid-field in the Irish Cambridgeshire on his seasonal return over an inadequate trip but stepped up markedly on that over an extra couple of furlongs when taking a good handicap at Cork last time.

The selection has unfinished business over this sort of trip, too, as his only other attempt at it came when well beaten in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot last season, where he shaped as if amiss, trailing in over 40 lengths behind the winner.

Ottilien's recent stable debut for Joseph O'Brien was a poor one and he's got plenty to prove on the back of that, while Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar will likely find this barely enough of a test on his return to the flat.

With those doubts in mind, Mashhoor looks the one to be on.

Back Mashhoor at

3/1+

Recommended bets

Mark's P/L (Not incl. Friday)

Staked: 386 Returns: 471.75 P/L: +85.75

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