Group 1 Phoenix Stakes Big Race Verdict: Brilliant Coventry winner not to be ignored

• O'Brien to make it win number 18 in Group 1

• Filly backed in opposition to Gstaad

• Alan Dudman delivers the Big Race Verdict for this weekend's Phoenix Stakes 

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Coventry winner Gstaad tops betting at 8/111.73

Group 1 action at the Curragh on Saturday sees the brilliant Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Gstaad at the head of the Sportsbook market to preserve his perfect two-from-two record, and with the measured brilliant at the Royal meeting, you cannot argue with an 8/111.73 price on the Sportsbook.

Standing in his way is a Ballydoyle inmate and filly in receipt of weight in True Love, brilliant herself in the Railway Stakes last time plus an Amo pairing - one pacemaker presumably and one contender of sorts.

Saturday's forecast is for a dry day and on Friday with conditions good, expect some firm in the description at some point.

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Phoenix Stakes form and contenders 

The Coventry Stakes form received a decent boost recently with Coppull's two length victory in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, and he was brushed aside readily into third by Gstaad.

Indeed, the second from Ascot Do Or Do Not has been in Group 2 races since including a third in the Vintage Stakes on the Sussex Downs.

Delving into the nuts and bolts of the Coventry win, Gstaad's penultimate furlong at 11.65 seconds was the biggest take out off a dead-even pace and the ATR website slapped on a speed upgrade of A+, which alongside the Timeform figure of the race at 111+, it looks healthy.

Gstaad's half-brother Vandeek was a fine juvenile, a fast one too, so I wonder if Gstaad will be shipped off to the breeding sheds like Vandeek after a very brief career, which sums up the state of the UK breeding.

But on Ascot alone, he was like the golden lad that swept all before him, to bag a line from a Charles Dickens' novel, and Gstaad needs to stand tall now that Albert Einstein and Charles Darwin are on the sidelines.

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True Love a worthy opponent

Aidan O'Brien's dominance of the race is probably one you didn't need to consult the history books with, and with 17 wins, is the most successful trainer in the history of the race.

However, and a small however, he's only landed the race once since 2017 with Little Big Bear's success in 2022.

True Love lost to Gstaad at Navan on debut and she was a 2/51.40 favourite with the benefit of the run and experience. Since, she's taken the Queen Mary and Railway Stakes - races which earned 102+ and 110+ from the Halifax massive.

A Queen Mary winner wouldn't lead me to a 6f Curragh horse, but her Railway Stakes win in good to soft (Ascot was firm) showed a different side in many ways and while not short of speed (she holds a fascinating Nunthorpe entry), she also has one in the 7f Moyglare.

She's thriving no doubt and the Railway is often a good pointer to this.

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Papin winner needs to improve on bare form

Green Sense is another filly in the field with the weight pull on Gstaad and she's doing it for the excellent Starman, a sire whose stock continue to impress.

She was put in her place in the Albany Stakes on fast ground but did win in the soft to take the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin. But the form of the race across channel looks weak in is some 16lb shy of what Gstaad achieved at the Royal meeting.

The other factor could be the ground, and while Timeform gave the going on times as good to soft rather than official soft, perhaps she's a filly who prefers cut?

I am guessing really and it's too early to base her Ascot flop purely on firmer going and at 9/110.00 she appears to have no friends in the betting.

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Kia giving it a go, but will come up short 

The UK challenge in the past has been a good one with recent winners for Martyn Meade and Hugo Palmer, but with the close proximity of York, and even further ahead the Prix Morny, the UK challenge comes from Amo and Kia, and at least he's having a go.

Power Blue has got plenty of experience with five runs, and once again, it is worth applauding that he hasn't been wrapped up in cotton wool, he's raced and taken on the best.

Fifth in the Coventry over the far side agianst Gstaad, second to Albert Einstein in the Marble Hill and last time out third in the Railway behind not only Puerto Rico, but the winner True Love.

He hasn't broken the three-figure mark in terms of a Timeform figure and with him also failing to beat three of Saturday's rivals, he is perhaps just shy of the figure needed.

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Market moves as of Friday afternoon

True Love was well supported on the Sportsbook as the initial 11/43.75 was taken into 2/13.00 - a move which is perfectly understandable with her 3lbs against Gstaad and the one credible rival.

Green Sense was a drifter from 17/29.50 to 9/110.00 and Power Blue was also weak by Friday lunchtime from 12s to 16s.

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Pace Map

Presumably Da Bronxs is in for front-running duties for Power Love, although the latter might not need assistance as he has gone forward in his own right.

Puerto Rico can make it, Gstaad will sit handy while True Love is the potential spoiler as a fast filly and Queen Mary winner under positives tactics over 5f, admittedly a stiff 5f, she caught a lead last time but travelled superbly.

Unless of course pacemakers and outside don't run according to plan and produce a Qirat style blockbuster.

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Big Race Verdict

With a clean run I am revealing hardly the bet of the century with Gstaad, but I wouldn't want to be a layer at 8/111.73 and see no reason why he will not improve again.

Hopefully Ryan Moore has chosen correctly, but he was sensational in the Coventry Stakes.

The fear could be a dawdle against the pure speed of True Love, as at Ascot Gstaad was just niggled before the two furlong market to get going, but after that he floated into contention and was away from all of the speed over the far side as Moore edged him further away from the stands' group.

That was a riding masterclass.

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Now read more tips and previews for the weekend here!

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