Horse Racing Tips

Alan Dudman's Antepost Tips: Highstakes a player for Ascot on Saturday

Ascot Racecourse
Ascot stages its first jumps' fixture of the season this Saturday

Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal come up this weekend and Alan Dudman takes an early look at the Sportsbook markets...


Double entries makes life difficult for Charlie Hall Chase

A superb weekend of racing awaits with two of the marquee jumps' tracks for the winter staging their first two big meetings of the season at Ascot and Wetherby, while the Breeders' Cup is also priced up on the Sportsbook. And while there is no genre that Ed Sheeran cannot include in his oeuvre, I will leave the US races to focus on the jumps.

There are also two Newmarket Listed races for Saturday with the final dice thrown at HQ, although those two are yet to chalked up on the Sportsbook. And for good measure there's the Ladbrokes Champion Chase over at Down Royal.

Off to Yorkshire first and the weather seems rain-free in terms of the forecast for the week.

Out of the blocks and in no particular time order, the Charlie Hall Chase with five of the 13 entries from Ireland and two from Gordon Elliott - something of a common theme we are going to see with the dearth of 160+ plus chasers knocking around for the home team.

This could be the weekend where it all clicks for Paul Nicholls and some of the bigger guns unleashed, as it's fair to point out that his horses haven't quite come out firing. But it's a long season and Bravemansgame certainly fits the description of big gun from Ditcheat - or in Latin, Tempus Magnum.

Indeed, Bravemansgame was a winner of this in 2022 and runner-up last year, although his success was off a wind op.

I'd love to see him put in a big performance and it's hard to believe he went winless all through last season. While his campaign pretty much looks after itself, I'd imagine the Betfair Chase will be his prime target which is why I went to swerve the 13/82.63.

Grey Dawning is shorter in the betting at 11/82.38 and one imagines the Gold Cup will be high on his agenda, and remember, he was the horse who broke the Irish dominance at the Festival in the spring with a quality performance in the Turner's. Skelton senior said: "I think this is as good a novice as we have ever had," said the winning trainer of the seven-year-old.

"He is very good. He jumps well and has a great brain, and he stays very well. We'll go down the Gold Cup route next year."

Again, it nags away at me with those top horses whether the first run of the season will be needed. But this is a proper race, although note with Grey Dawning that he's entered in Sunday's Colin Parker at Carlisle.

Gold Cup second Gerri Colombe is at 9/25.50, but again, he's double entered for the weekend and is in the Champion Chase at Down Royal too and is 4/71.57 there which tells a story - so two of three at the top of the market might not run, and with my luck in terms of picking the wrong races recently, it makes life tricky. Throw in Hewick too to that massive.

I might be way out here, but going fresh with Thunder Rock at 14/115.00 for an each-way punt looks one of the more interesting angles.

He's two from three on his first run of the season in recent times - winning at Cheltenham on soft and scoring too on good at Uttoxeter in 2022. The ground might just suit him as he too is unexposed over 3m - and he looked superb at Kelso scoring over the Scone Palace fences last term.

Obviously the trainer has started in rapid fashion and hopefully some of that magic has rubbed off on the horse's jumping, which at times has been far from foot perfect and he needs a big improvement on that front, but as Murphy has said before, he hasn't lost his ability overnight.

It's a risky one clearly and he too has an entry in the West Yorkshire Hurdle on the same day just to complicate things, so it's one to monitor. Conflated is at 7s but he is drawn to an unseat like a moth to a fly and guess what? He too is entered at Down Royal.


West Yorkshire Hurdle option with Sandor?

Ah, the West Yorkshire Hurdle, and scene of my favourite ever jumps horse Tidal Bay with back-to-back wins almost a decade ago. So for those remodelling themselves from chasing (and I am looking at you Thunder Rock), here is your chance.

Some trainers must surely be tempted to eschew the Gold Cup route for the stayers- such is the lack of quality in the ranks.

The race isn't priced up on the Sportsbook for understandable reasons due to the double entries, and two of the Dan Skelton mares in Kateria and Take No Chances both have entries in the Mares' race on the card.

I like the look of Paul Nolan's Sandor Clegane - a horse with good staying ability and he also possesses a gear or two at the end of a race. His novice chase campaign was disappointing last term and he doesn't look quite up to standard for a Gold Cup pathway - so it could well be Nolan might be thinking of the stayers' route.

He was third in the Albert Bartlett as a young hurdler, and with his jumping a bit too scratchy for me over fences, this could be an interesting starting point for the connections and Nolan as he does stay.


Four Ascot races on ITV and two bets for card

Ascot's first jumping card of the season will have four of the races on ITV and the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase over 3m looks the race of the day. With 14 entered, it will be interesting to see how the field size stacks up come declarations time.

Ultima victor Chianti Classico is the favourite on the Sportsbook at 3/14.00 and he'll have plenty of weight to get his season off to winning one and his trainer Kim Bailey is another trainer you need not fear in terms of his yard being forward, and his chasers this term are already at 25%.

With the ground potentially riding on the sounder side with a dry week forecast, good ground could well suit the Tom Lacey runner Highstakesplayer.

He was ultra-progressive when he started his chase career, but it was halted with a lay off of nearly 500 days before resuming progress again last term and his resolution over fences never waivered - crucially for Saturday in mind, scoring on good ground and once on good to soft across the span of seasons.

The rookie chaser was pulled up in the Greatwood Gold Cup last season, but the ground was brutal and he may well have bounced in that. I think the 8/19.00 is a cracking price each-way as he'll go well on good - although he does hold an entry in the Sefton the following week.

Blasted double entries.


Byrne Group Handicap Chase pick with the enigma

Fourteen were entered for the Ascot 14:05 Byrne Group Handicap Chase over 2m1f, and again, the betting shape of the race is more appealing with a 4/15.00 the field market on the Sportsbook.

Harper's Brook made enimatic waves last term for Ben Pauling, but is now in the care of Dan Skelton and will make his first start hopefully this weekend for the yard and looks the bet at 6/17.00.

He hasn't quite cut it at a higher level, but a good handicapper over this sort of trip he is, but his fame has been more attributed to his quirks in the past - and those that remember him pulling himself up at Sandown will not need reminding.

However, Pauling used to say he was one of the most talented horses in his yard, and Skelton will have a good challenge here to see what he can do.

One aspect I am keen to tap into is his run at Ascot last winter when he finished a fine second over 2m3f to Triple Trade from 133.

He certainly has the talent to push on above 145 - especially judged on another Sandown performance with a scare or two last season with a loose horse. Maybe it's the Sandown drama he likes.

It was understandable that Pauling was gutted to lose him, but starting off for the Skeltons at a track where he has a bit of form might be the way to go here at 6/17.00.


Likely to see Gerri Colombe at Down Royal defend the crown

Last year's one-two-three compete again for Champion Chase honours in the big Grade 1 at Down Royal on Saturday and the victor 12 months ago Gerri Colombe is the 4/71.57 favourite on the Sportsbook to defend his crown rather than compete elsewhere with the Charlie Hall.

He only scored by a neck 12 months ago to Envoi Allen and I've watched the race again this morning as it's easy to forget these performances and quite how he got up in the dying strides was remarkable. He hit 36.035/1 in-running and looked beaten, although it didn't help when moving on the outside going into the turn and then he was switched again to the inside.

Envoi Allen came from a little further back in the race and looked to be better suited to the track with his speed but was outstayed.

It has the makings to once again be tactical and let's not forget Gordon Elliott has had a few turned over already this season at short prices including a 1/9 shot beaten. It's not a betting race for me, but Conflated should make the running and Envoi Allen might just gain revenge at 10/34.33 as he could have a bit more speed, but longer term, Gerri is far superior as a Gold Cup horse and it's abut plotting your victories.

Hewick is double entered too, and did you know he cost £800?


Now read more from Paul Nicholls with his plans on the Betfair Chase


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Alan Dudman avatar

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.