Rhys Williams ended last week on a high note with 20/1 and 8/1 winners on consecutive days. With nothing appealing on today's cards, our man looks at the Ladbrokes Trophy later this month...
"While the on the day markets seem to have reacted to this, I think that hasn't trickled into this market with Copperhead being available to back at 50/1."
Strong traveller favoured by dry forecast
A largely dry forecast ahead is likely to result in the Ladbrokes Trophy being run on good ground on November 27 and that may not be ideal for either of the two Irish challengers currently at the head of the market, Eklat de Rire and Ontheropes, so given their prices I'm happy to pass on them.
The same can be said of Fiddlerontheroof who handles good ground but may ideally want it a bit softer than it is likely to be on the day and his price doesn't compensate for that concern.
The expected ground will be no issue for Enrilo and Kitty's Light and given that, I think the former should be favourite and is the first selection at 8/1.
His only disappointing run over fences was in the Kauto Star at Kempton when he was subsequently found to have an infection in a tooth and he duly bounced back next time at Newbury when winning with far more in hand than the half length margin suggests.
His final run of last season was in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and he tanked through the race. He cruised into a two-lengths lead going to 2 out where he made a mistake and was down on his nose. He quickly recovered and went into a clear lead halfway up the run-in where the idleness that he showed at Newbury once again appeared. He shifted left under pressure and hampered Kitty's Light before running on well again having got that company and was first past the post but was demoted to third following a stewards' enquiry.
The way Enrilo travelled through that race was very taking and I think he was clearly the most talented horse on the day but his idleness cost him. He's been put up 4lb for that performance and I think there could be plenty more to come from him particularly if the rain stays away and it's good ground.
The concern is that he will repeat his antics from Sandown and throw away victory through being idle but I expect the plan will be to try to hit the front as late as possible to combat that and he's an each way bet because of that concern. Any 7/1 or bigger appeals.
The horse he hampered at Sandown, Kitty's Light, has run two excellent races in defeat this season. He was only beaten a head at Chepstow when unfavourably positioned on his first start of the season and then finished second in the Charlie Hall last time. He's only five and still open to more improvement but he faces Enrilo on 6lb worse terms than at Sandown. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him but I think there's not much edge in the price.
Can bounce back to form for resurgent Tizzard
The other horse that does appeal to me at a very big price is Copperhead. It was well documented that Colin Tizzard's yard struggled with a virus last season and the horses have duly bounced back this season. They are running at a 22% strike rate so far this month and while the on the day markets seem to have reacted to this, I think that hasn't trickled into this market with Copperhead being available to back at 50/1.
He was favourite at one time for this race last season but he jumped badly and never seemed to be going and was pulled up at any early stage.
He showed more spark in a couple of runs over hurdles later in the season including when running respectably in the Pertemps Final when beaten 19½ lengths.
Prior to last season he had looked a very promising staying chaser having won a handicap over this C&D off 134, when it seemed that Harry Cobden's only concern after jumping three out was to not win by too far, and he followed that up with a wide-margin victory in the Reynoldstown.
The ground was extremely testing that day and he was one of a number of horses to subsequently disappoint on their next start having run well that day when he was well beaten before falling at the last in the RSA.
His mark has dropped to 148 and with the yard now back in much better form I think he has the ability to run well for all there are some concerns.
He does have to show that he still retains the ability that he showed two seasons ago and his jumping hasn't always convinced including in this race last year, with him showing a tendency to go to his right when he's not in a good rhythm.
There is also the concern that good ground might result in him not running but they were happy to run him on good ground last season and he's won twice on good to soft ground so hopefully they haven't got it in their heads that he needs very testing ground. Anything 25/1 or bigger appeals.
RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2021
Daily Offer - Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples
“Stake £20 on multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle within 48 hours. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.”