Saturday Racing Tips: Cap Du Nord leads Tony Calvin's Coral Trophy trio

Many think I am far too price-sensitive but I make no apologies for that - you have to draw the line somewhere or else we would all just be tipping and backing our fancies, regardless of the odds - and sometimes it saves you doing your money in cold blood.

That happened on Monday, when the horse I was about to put up at 25/1 for the Coral Trophy, Ofalltheginjoints, was cut into 14/1 just before I filed.

I know plenty would have ploughed on regardless in those circumstances. But, however annoying it was, I pulled the tip, content in the knowledge that, as I wouldn't back it at 14s, I wasn't about to suggest that you did.

Of course, it helps if you write for an employer who doesn't demand a tip for every column you write, and in this case it worked in our favour as the horse, surprisingly, didn't appear in the final field of 14.

For a 150k handicap to attract just 14 runners (the maximum field would be 20) is disappointing to say the least - with a top weight of 150, this race wouldn't look out of place on a good-quality Friday card, and it deserved better - but that is whole different debate.

Let's crack on.

Lower mark adds to Cap Du Nord appeal

I said in that ante-piece that I backed Zhiguli and Cap Du Nord, at 25s and 20s respectively, on Sunday but I couldn't put either up in my Monday column, as the former was also given an entry in the novices' chase on this card and the latter was slashed in price to 7/1 after the weights, very predictably, went up 22lb at the five-day stage (he was set to carry 8st 9lb before that happened).

Cap Du Nord has to be of interest to all now he has dropped to a mark of 127, with Jack Tudor taking off another 3lb.

Connections apparently believe he comes here in much better shape than he has been for his last two starts, and he is 15lb lower than when fifth in this race last season. And he is 6lb lower than when second to the then 140-rated Royal Pagaille over course and distance in December 2020.

As for that "better shape" comment, one of his owners (who I have never actually met, to my knowledge) kindly sent me screenshots of all his scope results before his runs this season and the latest were the best. Make of that what you will, but it is certainly no negative as he was inched down a further 2lb for his, admittedly distant, third in the Sky Bet Chase last time.

He is now out to 9s (the 10/1, annoyingly went at 3pm on Thursday) with the Betfair Sportsbook, who are offering four places, and that makes him very backable once again. Odds of 8.07/1 or bigger would remain acceptable.

It is just a matter of shuffling my betting cards now, as I like two others as well at the current prices, but I have to have him onside each way at 9s, as he looks very solid indeed. If he is not in the first four, then I will be all the poorer.

Zhiguli could produce huge run

I must admit I was still trying to get my head around how the Sportsbook could still offer Zhiguli at 20s for this race, and for the horse to trade to be trading at a similar price on the Exchange.

Then the 20s became 18s and then 14s literally after the publish button was hit.

Granted, his record suggests he would prefer deeper ground - it is good to soft at Kempton, good in places, by the way, even after 4mm on Thursday morning - this is a step up in class (so I am little worried about him getting taken out his comfort zone, pace-wise), and, unlike Cap Du Nord and Zanza (we will get to that old rogue in a minute), his chance rests on one piece of form. And Lingfield heavy ground form at that.

But that commanding victory officially makes him the best handicapped horse in here, as he has been given an extra 2lb in future races after that win over 2m4f has been re-assessed.

And little wonder why as the 4 ½-length runner-up Chambard gagged up by 13 lengths off a 3lb higher mark at Fontwell last time, and Cut The Mustard, beaten a further 18 lengths in third, won off a 2lb lower mark at Leicester last week.

The scope for improvement is clearly there after just the four chase starts and the step up in trip should be no hardship for a horse with a win under 3m1f to his name.

If he doesn't find this happening a bit too quickly for him on the ground - I admit he does have blow-out potential, and the fact that all his best form is at Lingfield is another concern of sorts - then he has a huge run in him.

Back him at 14/1 win-only with the Sportsbook, (the 18s went just before we published at 4pm) or a similar price on the Exchange. I will settle my bet at the Exchange's Betfair SP if he does win.

The 14s is a bare minimum now though after the disappearing prices.

That is two tips, and I have never stuck up three in one race before, but that is what I going to do here, with Zanza at 12.011/1 or bigger, also thrown into the betting mix. Again 10s upwards, and he is that price on the Sportsbook, is fine.

I will be backing all three myself, so I am happy to tip like-wise.

The Timeform posse have given Zanza a squiggle and he did run lamentably when we last saw him on New Year's Day and that is where the negatives don't end, as he is also unproven beyond 2m4f. And we have to mention his somewhat errant jumping, of course.

But, along with Cap Du Nord and Zhiguli, I think he is among the three best handicapped horses in the race, now 3lb lower than for a Haldon Cup third to Eldorado Allen and Hitman (with Greaneteen in fourth) and on the same mark as when second to Coole Cody at Cheltenham two starts ago.

Maybe, the move away from Cheltenham (some of his better efforts have come on flatter tracks like Kempton's, most notably Newbury - thanks to the stat nerd Andrew Mount for pointing that out earlier in the week) and the more sedate pace of 3m will hopefully see his fencing improve, and the manner in which he has finished off some of his races over 2m4f suggests this trip is worth a go.

Like Zhiguli, he has more than a touch of boom-or-bust about him, so he is a win-only bet, and the smallest of the three wagers, too.

I also quite liked Galahad Quest stepping up to 3m too, and Good Boy Bobby, but four or five would be pushing it.

Just Your Type could be big player at Newcastle

I better keep this tight now after that wordy analysis of just the one race, so I am going to rule out the two Lingfield races as betting races straight away.

For starters, I thought it was very hard to gauge how the all-weather races were going to pan out pace-wise, and I also didn't have much beef with the way the two contests were priced up either. The six-runner 5f sprint looks a nightmare, in truth. I could have five goes and still miss.

I was also going to give the Eider at Newcastle at 15:15 a swerve but the Betfair Sportsbook lured me in with the 18/1 about Just Your Type. Back him at 18/1 each way, five places. Odds of 14/1 or bigger would be fine, too.

I did consider going win-only on him as his jumping is his achilles heel and I could have cried when he came to grief, when going very well on the front and carrying my cash, at Lingfield last time.

But if he puts it all together, then a relatively blemish -free round surely makes him a big player off this career-low mark, some 9lb lower than when sixth in this race in 2019 and 3lb less than for his last win in November 2020.

One to watch from the behind the sofa maybe, but fortune will hopefully favour the brave. And the stupid.

In fact, I may not even watch it all, and just refresh my balance after the race to get the good or bad news, so you can add in cowardly, as well.

Back to Kempton where I put up Deyrann De Carjac and Not A Role Model each way at 7s and 14s respectively for the 2m4f handicap chase at 13:15, on Tuesday. I am very happy to see them among just eight entries for the race.

No need to go in again, but for those new to the party I think both are still fair value at around 9/2+ and 8/1+ win-only on the Exchange. Be careful if you are betting each-way with the dead-eight.

No interest whatsoever in the five-runner Grade 2 novices' chase at 14:25, but the two hurdles either side of that contest look a couple of crackers.

We have another dead-eight in the Dovecote at 15:00 and each-way punters are going to need all three places here, as this race has more depth to it than the prices suggest.

I have a lot of time for Sandown winner Shallwehaveonemore but good luck if you are siding with him at around 11/10 on the Exchange .

I think three or four of these have a decent shot at beating him, and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if Frere D'Armes. The 7/1 with the Sportsbook, took this race en route to a tilt at the Morebattle handicap under a 7lb penalty at Kelso next weekend.

He looks a bit better than his mark of 126 to me, and I will probably back him on the Exchange's each-way market when that is put up (7s is a very fair guide price) on Friday. But nothing doing for now, as I do want the three places on my side.

Look out for Moka

Moka de Vassy is another horse that I can't put up at the moment as I think the Sportsbook are right to swerve him at 6/1, but once the Exchange market beefs up on Friday, I would suggest you look to back him at 7s or bigger there for the Adonis at 13:50. Maybe even a touch a longer.

I will try to tweet if he does hit a backable price there, and I will possibly put up an update on here if I am around. Incidentally, I may not be, on Friday, for personal reasons, hence why I am going up with the column so early today (I always check the prices for accuracy immediately as the column goes live).

Now, this is another hot race, but I love the way the Williams' improve their horses, often unraced on the Flat, with their racing. Moorland Rambler was another example of this at Taunton earlier in the week.

I was surprised Moka de Vassy doesn't have any Cheltenham entries as his progression in his three hurdles has been striking.

He quickly came off the bridle in the straight but I loved the way he travelled into the race, on the outside, in the Triumph Trial at Cheltenham last time, and it was clearly no disgrace for the 50/1 chance to find only Pied Piper too good.

If he takes a similar step forward here, then he will give all of these a race, even if Chester Williams cannot claim his 3lb. The other I liked at the prices was the unpenalised Graystone at 9/1 (the top two both carry 5lb penalties) as I can see him getting the run of the race from the front.

Good luck, all.

ANTE-POST BETS
Deyrann De Carjac at 7/1 each way and Not A Role Model at 14/1 each way in the 13:15 at Kempton

Saturday Pace Maps

Kempton 13:15 - Lead/Prominent: Patroclus, Neil The Legend, Le Cameleon, Not A Role Model; Midfield: One True King; Held Up: Deyrann De Carjac, Flegmatik, Foxboro

Kempton 13:50 - Lead/Prominent: Graystone; Midfield: Impulsive One, Knight Salute, The Famous Five, Big Boy Bobby, Patient Dream; Held Up: Pleasant Man, Moka De Vassy, Rubaud, Iroko, Teddy Boy

Kempton 14:25 - Lead/Prominent: Pic D'Orhy, Goa Lil; Midfield: Fantastic Lady, Minella Drama, Millers Bank

Kempton 15:00 - Lead/Prominent: Shallwehaveonemore, Aucunrisque, Frere D'Armes, Iceo; Midfield: Moriko De Vassy, Russian Ruler, Legionar; Held Up: Galore Desassences

Kempton 15:37 - Lead/Prominent: Annsam, Good Boy Bobby, Beakstown, Lalor; Midfield: Five Star Getaway, Cap Du Nord, The Big Breakaway, Galahad Quest. Enrilo, Our Power, Zhiguli; Held Up: Phoenix Way, Zanza, Kitty's Light

Lingfield 13:30 - Lead/Prominent: Tone The Barone, One Night Stand; Midfield: Lord Riddiford, Exalted Angel, Mondammej Held Up: Strong Power

Lingfield 14:05 - Lead/Prominent: Al Zaraqaan, Alenquer ?, Forest Of Dean ; Midfield: Fancy Man, Barn Owl, Pistoletto; Held Up: King Of The South. Lord North?

Newcastle 15:15 - Lead/Prominent: Danilo D'Airy, Éclair Surf, Cash To Ash, Innisfree Lad, Just Your Type, Rath An Iuir, Potters Corner; Midfield: History Of Fashion, Checkitout, Court Master. Achille, Brave Eagle, Gwencily Berbas, Lake View Lad; Held Up: Domaine De L'Isle, Strong Economy, Win My Wings

Profit and Loss (From April 14)

Staked: 284pts Returns: 479.86pts P/L: +195.86