Horse Racing Tips: Two to play at Leicester from Rhys Williams

Ran better than the result suggests last time

Leicester 13:50: Ashfield Paddy 1pt win 4/1

Dash Full Of Cash heads the market for the opening novices' handicap chase at Leicester and while I think he's more talented than his rating of 111, I'm not convinced the drop back in trip will suit him. He looked a thorough stayer on debut in a point and has given the same impression on both starts over hurdles so I have doubts over whether he will be at his best over half a mile shorter.

I think Ashfield Paddy's price is an overreaction to his 37-length defeat last time at Chepstow when he ran better than that would suggest. In a race dominated by those that raced prominently, he was held up before making a big move at the end of the back straight on the final circuit to go into fourth entering the home straight. Making such an effort unsurprisingly took its toll and he had little left after 3 out.

Prior to that, he had run well twice over fences at Bangor and Ffos Las. He jumped out to the right and made a few bad mistakes at Bangor but he travelled smoothly to take the lead turning into the home straight. However, another mistake at 2 out resulted in him coming under pressure on the run to the last and he made another small mistake there and couldn't catch Yggdrasil on the run in.

At Ffos Las, he was one of seven in contention going to 2 out and he still looked to have more to offer when he was brought down by Oneupmanship.

Ashfield Paddy has been dropped 2lb for the Chepstow run and is now back over a more suitable distance and a more suitable track given that he's jumped out to the right at times.

He does get quite low at fences so there will always be a concern that his jumping could let him down but given the doubts over his rivals I think he's overpriced and any 7/2 or bigger appeals.

Back on a right-handed track with cheekpieces reapplied

Leicester 15:35: Ring The Moon 1pt win 12/1

Ring The Moon is another horse who I think will be suited by the return to a right-handed track and he could be more competitive than his price suggests if the return of cheekpieces has the desired effect.

He won very easily at this track when cheekpieces were first applied and followed up at Taunton next time before running badly on his final start of last season when sent off favourite over today's C&D.

He was well beaten on his first start of this season at Ffos Las but was in the process of running far better at the same track next time until falling. Having been held up, he gradually made headway and was one of a leading line at seven jumping 3 out where he fell.

Ring The Moon ran badly at Bangor last time when never in contention and there's a chance he could do the same today. However, all of three of his runs this season have been without cheekpieces on and it could be that the reapplication of headgear will spark him up and bring about a return to the level he showed last season with him running today off a 3lb higher mark than when he won at Taunton.

Those at the head of the market for this race are hardly the most reliable and there's not much strength in depth to this contest so any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS' PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 62.00pts
Returned: 102.63pts
P/L: +40.63pts

RHYS' ROI 2021: 28%