Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is the outsider of three at Doncaster

Doncaster
Our racing expert has one selection on Wednesday

"His action suggests he wants cut in the ground so the good ground that day was likely against him"

Rhys Williams has analysed Wednesday's racing and has a sole selection at Doncaster.

Return to softer ground to suit

Doncaster 14:50: Geryville 1pt win 3/1

It's no surprise that Castle Robin has shortened from the early prices given that he's 3lb better off with Lord Accord than when beating him at Exeter earlier this season. There was an excuse for his performance two starts ago but I'm not convinced that it was just going right-handed that caused him to jump poorly last time and he does have to bounce back from that.

Lord Accord has victories over fences either side of that Exeter defeat and he picked up well on the run-in at Taunton having stumbled very slightly on landing but he was chasing down a horse who isn't the heartiest under pressure and I think he would ideally want the ground to be quicker than it is at Doncaster today.

Geryville is in the same boat as Castle Robin in that his jumping can let him down but I think there's too much between him and the front pair at the current prices. He was a surprise winner on his first start for this yard at Wetherby when winning by twelve lengths but he backed that up with a good performance in defeat at the same track next time. He was only beaten 4½ lengths by Sidi Ismael despite a collection of mistakes and hesitant jumping and the winner won again off a 9lb higher mark next time.

Geryville was pulled up when favourite next time but had mucus in his larynx so that can be easily excused and he ran respectably last time at Newcastle on ground that was likely quicker than ideal for him. Once again his jumping was far from slick and he lost touch with the leading pair early in the back straight as a result of that but he ran on well under pressure in the straight and would have finished a bit closer to the winner but for a mistake at the last.

His action suggests he wants cut in the ground so the good ground that day was likely against him and he returns to a more suitable surface today. Whether he gets the ideal tactical setup or not will depend on what tactics they implement with Lord Accord. At Exeter, he took on Castle Robin from the off but last time at Taunton they chose to track the front pair. If they revert to the tactics used at Exeter to prevent Castle Robin from getting a soft lead then that could result in Geryville getting the ideal tracking trip in behind.

His jumping is a concern but he's shown twice that he can still run well despite jumping poorly and any 11/4 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 55.00pts Returned: 96.63pts P/L: +41.63pts RHYS’ ROI 2021: 28%

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.