Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is an outsider at Newcastle

Newcastle
Our racing expert has one selection on Monday

"Late last year she ran well twice over this C&D when not getting a clear path."

Rhys Williams has analysed Monday's racing and has a big-priced selection at Newcastle.

Returning to a more suitable test

Newcastle 17:30: Velma 1pt e/w 25/1

Velma has only won once back in October 2020 but that was over this C&D and off a slipping mark I think she has a better chance to add to that sole success than the market suggests.

She was well beaten last time at this track but that was over 1m2f and she was too keen and clearly didn't see out the trip.

Late last year she ran well twice over this C&D when not getting a clear path. On the first of those occasions, she raced towards the back of the field early on before starting to make headway three furlongs out. Her path was blocked and she had to be switched to the middle of the track to get a clear run before running on late to finish third.

She once again finished third next time when getting no run on the near rail. She travelled strongly through the race and made headway to track the leader on the rail with two furlongs to go. However, she got boxed in and her momentum was halted a couple of times before getting a clear run a furlong out and could only run on into third from that position.

Velma does have a history of hanging right so being drawn in stall 3 might not be ideal and this race may not be as strongly run as she might like but I think her price is an overreaction to her latest run and she's been dropped 3lb for that to a mark 5lb below the one she finished third off over C&D three starts ago. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 52.50pts
Returned: 68.23pts
P/L: +15.73pts

RHYS’ ROI 2021: 28%

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.