Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is an outsider at Kempton

Plenty of promise on debut last year

Kempton 19:00: Swatch 1pt win 25/1

Swatch is the only runner of the seven in this conditions race to have not won but he shaped with plenty of promise on debut at Newmarket last year and I think he can run better than his price suggests this evening.

That debut was over seven furlongs and he was able to race handily from the off. Pushed along going into the dip, he was outpaced and briefly dropped back into fifth before rallying going up the hill. He was making ground when Noble Order shifted into his path and halted his momentum, causing him to have to be switched sharply left. He picked up again but was only ridden hands and heels after that to finish fourth.

The step up to a mile looks likely to bring improvement from Swatch given the way that he stayed on and I think this surface will be more suitable. His action suggests that he wouldn't want much cut in the ground so it's encouraging that he was able to run that well on soft ground.

It may be that this class of race is a step too far at this stage of Swatch's career and the crazy early prices have gone but I still think he's overpriced and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.