Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a winning pointer on handicap debut at Plumpton

Plumpton
Our racing expert has one selection on Monday

Our resident tipster has analysed Monday's racing and has a sole selection at a big price at Plumpton.

  • Looked a thorough stayer in points

  • Visor can help him travel better

  • Hilnamix is overpriced at Plumpton


Potential improver on handicap debut

Plumpton 14:30: Hilnamix 0.5pt e/w 18/1

Back Hilnamix in the 14:30 at Plumpton 0.5pt e/w

18/1

Hilnamix hasn't shown much so far in three starts under rules but I think he could be capable of improving now stepped up in trip on his handicap debut.

He started his career with the pointing arm of the Hill team and made his debut over 2m4f at Mollington. He dropped to last place with a circuit to go and was under pressure early on the final circuit before plugging on late to take fourth.

He was once again under pressure with a circuit to go on his second start when stepped up to 3m at Edgcote and he looked beaten in fifth entering the home straight but he kept finding for pressure and stayed on well to hit the front in the last few strides.

Hilnamix's four subsequent starts in points the following season suggested that he needed a test of stamina and that headgear could help him, with cheekpieces helping to some degree on his final start in that sphere at Kingston Blount.

He's failed to be remotely competitive in three starts in novice hurdles over distances around 2m4f and on soft ground which isn't a surprise given the evidence of those runs in points.

Hilnamix now has a far more suitable set of circumstances to show his full ability with the step up to 3m1f, the better ground and application of a visor for the first time all likely to help his chance.

It might be that he's just slow and could end up needing extreme tests of stamina over fences and/or a more galloping track to show his true ability but the best of his form in points suggests that an opening mark of 83 could underrate his ability and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 42.50pts

Returned: 36.03pts

P/L: -6.47pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.