Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a winning pointer at Perth

Very easy winner of an Irish point

Perth 13:00: Aubis Walk 1pt win 5/2

Burn The Evidence is the odds-on favourite for the opening novices' hurdle at Perth. She was a wide-margin winner at Fairyhouse two starts ago but I think she was significantly flattered by that and she was beaten when 2/9 favourite at Musselburgh last time. She didn't jump too well that day and looked awkward under pressure in the home straight and I think she's one to take on today.

Aubis Walk didn't come off the bridle to win a point on her second start and I think she should be closer in the market to the favourite. She made her debut at Tattersalls Farm in November but having made a big move on the inside after 3 out to go into a narrow advantage she ran out at 2 out.

She made no mistake a week later at Quakerstown when making nearly all the running. She was headed going to 3 out by Leading Babe but that rival had nothing left approaching 2 out and Aubis Walk easily went back to the lead and extended her advantage all the way to the line without coming under any pressure.

While that wasn't an overly strong mares maiden, the ease with which Aubis Walk put her rivals away was taking and it was a fair performance on the clock considering she wasn't asked for any effort.

She was subsequently bought for £120,000 and now makes her first start for Nicky Richards. While I expect she will show her best over fences in the long term, she has shown enough ability already to think she can overturn the favourite.

While she drops back a mile in trip, I think she showed a high enough cruising speed to suggest she can cope with two miles and her two main rivals both carry a penalty. Any 2/1 or bigger appeals.

Quirky but has ability

Perth 13:00: Arcandy 0.5pt e/w 150/1

At a much bigger price, I think Arcandy could run better than the market suggests if she decides to start. She refused to race ay Ayr two starts ago and was reluctant to set off last time at Kelso but once she did, she ran well for a long way and was still in contention turning into the home straight before fading quickly and eventually falling at the last.

The ability she showed that day and in a point bumper when trained by Heidi Brookshaw suggests that she could be run quite well in a race of this quality and the return to two miles and better ground is likely to suit.

Clearly she's not straightforward and this could be a losing bet straight away if Arcandy decides that she doesn't want to race but I think she should be around the same price as the likes of Memors and Pasture Beach given the ability they've shown and any 50/1 or bigger appeals.