Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a veteran at Sedgefield

Sedgefield
Our racing expert has two selections on Thursday

"Given the doubts over his rivals and that the race is likely to set up well for him, I think Yourholidayisover is overpriced."

Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has two big-priced each-way selections at Sedgefield and Thurles...

Likely to have a good pace to close into

Sedgefield 16:40: Yourholidayisover 1pt e/w 25/1

It may appear that I've gone mad napping a fifteen-year-old who is well known for being a reluctant hero, has just two wins from 91 starts and hasn't won since January 2017 but Yourholidayisover just can't be 25/1 in a race of this quality.

He finished last of six last time but that was in a 0-120 and he was racing from 15lb out of the handicap. As he often does, he still travelled well for a long way before dropping away after 3 out.

Prior to that, he had snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at Bangor when racing off effectively a 2lb higher mark than he does today having been 7lb out of the handicap. He cruised to the front turning into the home straight and still looked to have matters in control after 2 out but he was only a length in front at the last and was caught late on by Royal Act.

While he hasn't won in over five years, Yourholidayisover can often be relied upon to do his usual thing of travelling strongly for a long way and then not really fancying it under pressure but that might be good enough in a race of this nature.

I'm expecting there to be a good pace with Wheelbahri, Nyoufsea and the dropping back in trip Lickpenny Larry likely to take each other on up front and such a pace should suit Yourholidayisover. Donladd has to show he can jump straighter on a left-handed track while Astra Via and Bandit d'Ainay are inconsistent. Roxyfet is dangerous off a slipping mark if he jumps better than has been the case of late.

Given the doubts over his rivals and that the race is likely to set up well for him, I think Yourholidayisover is overpriced. There is the worry that a non-runner would turn this from an attractive each way bet into a bad one but he shouldn't be the outsider of this bunch and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

More suitable test than points

Thurles 17:20: Springfield Promise 0.5pt e/w 22/1

Brookline and Nine Graces finished second and third at Punchestown and head the market for this bumper but I think the market has overlooked the chance of one at a much bigger price.

Springfield Promise made her debut in a point to point bumper at Punchestown just under a year ago and that turned out to be a good race. It was won by Limerick Lace who has since finished second to Brandy Love before winning a maiden hurdle. In second was Jenny Flex who won a maiden point next time by ten lengths, third was subsequent bumper winner Tintern Abbey and the fifth, Littel Flour, who was beaten a neck in a bumper next time.

She's since been contesting point to points and showing ability despite those contests not being ideal for her. Just over a month after running at Punchestown she finished a close second in a maiden at Fairyhouse where her jumping let her down at the final two fences and she was beaten a length by Fancy Stuff. The winner has won a bumper for Dan Skelton since while the third, Motown Maggie, has won a maiden hurdle.

Springtime Promise's jumping badly let her down on her next two starts but it was better when she finished a close second behind Autumn Return, who has since been sold for £55,000 to join Ruth Jefferson.

Considering how much her jumping impacted her performances, I'm expecting the return to a bumper to be a more suitable test for Springtime Promise. There is a slight concern that she might not quite have the speed for this but there isn't much strength in depth to this bumper and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

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