Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a novice hurdler at Fontwell

Looked in need of stiffer test on bumper debut

Fontwell 12:45: The Big Red One 1pt win w/o the favourite 14/1

Serious Changes is a very short-priced favourite for this opening novice hurdle and justifiably so given the ability he's shown. Rather than take him on, I think there's an attractive option in the without the favourite market.

Blade Runner is the favourite in this market and he faces an easier task today than last time at Lingfield. The concern over him is that I think he's looked in need of a thorough test of stamina on both starts over hurdles and it might be that, as at Plumpton, he gets outpaced late on.

Lydford Lad is next in and he's clearly got ability but has also not looked straightforward and it may be that everything was in his favour at Ffos Las three starts ago and he won't be able to get back to that level of form.

I think One For The Wall has ability but he's finished both races under rules weaker than would have been expected given how well he travelled.

At a much bigger price, I think The Big Red One's chance has been overlooked considering the promise he showed on debut in a bumper. He raced in midfield in a steadily run race and was bumped along when racing greenly going away from the stands for the final time. He was pushed along and dropped back to last when the pace quickened leaving the back straight and looked like he might be well beaten early in the home straight but ran on strongly late on to be beaten 3½ lengths.

The first two finishers had the benefit of previous experience and had both finished second on their run prior to this while the third has since finished third again in a bumper at Taunton.

I think today's test will be far more suitable for him than a steadily-run bumper and he showed enough ability at Plumpton to suggest he can at least be competitive for a place in a race of this quality.

Physically The Big Red One looked an obvious future chaser and long term prospect so it might be that his full ability will only come out two or three seasons down the line but I think he's overpriced given the potential flaws in his rivals and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.