Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a maiden hurdler at Ayr

Proven in very testing conditions

Ayr 13:55: Storm Tiger 0.5pt e/w 50/1

Conditions are going to be attritional at Ayr this afternoon and that may not be ideal for The Flier Begley who heads the market. I think he's the most talented horse in the race but he was taken out of race at Punchestown two days ago due to unsuitable ground when it was heavy, a tongue tie goes on for the first time and he went out to his right on several occasions at Navan on hurdling debut.

Of the opposition, there's no standout in terms of quality but I think the market is underestimating the chance of one at a big price given the ground.

Storm Tiger was a fortunate winner of a maiden point on debut and didn't show much of his first two starts under rules over two miles but offered a bit more hope when stepped up to 2m4f at Carlisle.

That resulted in him getting a mark of 100 for his handicap debut at Hexham and he ran well in defeat in fourth. Having raced a bit further back than midfield for the first circuit, he made some headway down the back straight but still had plenty to do in seventh jumping 2 out. Pushed along turning out of the back, he made a big move climbing the hill and moved up to challenge for the lead entering the home straight.

He couldn't sustain the progress after the last, however, and was beaten 4¼ lengths in fourth. The runner up has won since while the third and fifth finished second on their next starts.

Storm Tiger was disappointing when stepped up to three miles at Haydock last time but I think the trip clearly stretched his stamina. He was given a patient ride and jumped 3 out in a share of last before being pushed along approaching 2 out. He jumped the last in a share of third before weakening on the run-in to finish fifth.

He finished ten lengths behind Charm Offensive that day receiving 9lb but I think over this shorter trip he has a better chance of reversing that form than the market suggests.

Unlike many in this race, Storm Tiger has shown that he can run well on this ground and that could result in him faring better than horses who might be more talented than him but look likely to be suited by better ground.

The early triple-figure prices have disappeared but I still think he's overpriced at the current prices and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.