Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a handicap debutant at Taunton at a massive price

Could be well handicapped given bumper promise

Taunton 13:20: Takoda 0.5pt win 40/1

It's no surprise that Honestlyntrufully has been backed into favourite given the obvious eyecatching nature of his run at Plumpton on handicap debut but there's no edge at the price now whereas I think the market may have underestimated the chance of one at a much bigger price.

Takoda hasn't finished any closer than 29 lengths behind the winner in four starts over hurdles but he's shown glimpses of promise in those runs and the level of ability he showed in a bumper suggests he could have more ability than his rating of 93.

He started his career in the pointing field and was a wide-margin winner of a weak race on debut before being bought privately by these connections.

His first start for his new connections was in a bumper at Wincanton and while never looking like winning at any stage, he ran well to finish 6¼ lengths behind the winner in fifth. The winner and runner-up are now rated 111 and 116 over hurdles respectively while the third has won a Listed bumper and the fourth has won a bumper and hurdle since.

While he's failed to get competitive in any of his four starts over hurdles, Takoda has shown a bit of promise. On hurdling debut, he was held up before making some headway just before turning into the home straight to be towards the front of the chasing group that included subsequent handicap winners Raddon Top and Rock Of Star and then dropped away.

Despite racing on the worst part of the track next time he again showed a bit of ability when finishing fourth, ahead of Love Actually who won a handicap next time off 94 and Money Spinner who was beaten three lengths on handicap debut off 90.

Takoda fell at this track next time and then showed little on his most recent start at Fontwell.

He's now been given a rating of 93 for his handicap debut and I think he's shown signs at various times that he could be better than that mark.

The forecast rain this morning is a concern as I think he wouldn't want the ground too soft and it might be that he needs a wind op but I think he's a bit overpriced in a race of this quality and any 33/1 or bigger appeals.