Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a handicap debutant at Carlisle

Point form suggests opening mark could be lenient

Carlisle 13:00: Gareth Cael 1pt win 13/2

There are a few in this opening handicap hurdle who look capable of being better than their marks, including the Chris Gordon trained duo, but one stands above the others given the ability he showed in two runs in points.

Gareth Cael started his career with Bradley Gibbs and ran well in defeat on debut at Mollington. He was held up and didn't jump particularly well on the first circuit before making ground early in the back straight. He moved into a share of the lead with Scotch On Da Rocks running down the hill out of the back straight and appeared to be going better than that rival but Gareth Cael didn't quite see out the trip, with a mistake at the last not helping his cause, and he finished third.

He followed that up with victory over the same C&D just under a month later although it might have been close but for Bon Calvados taking a tired fall at the last when Gareth Cael was closing on him. That rival has gone on to win twice since in points.

Gareth Cael has shown very little in three starts over hurdles but there was at least a little more encouragement last time at Southwell on his first start after a wind op and if he can run back to the level that he achieved in points then he's better than his opening rating of 83.

There is the concern that he's shown so little under rules that he might have had a problem which means he won't repeat the level he showed in points and he didn't finish either race in points strongly so the stiff finish at Carlisle may not be ideal but given how much improvement there could be to come I think he's overpriced and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.

Promising debut in Irish point

Carlisle 16:30: Snowy Evening 1pt win 5/1

Maximilian heads the market for the bumper and he ran to a good level when winning at this track but I think he faces strong opposition today from another horse who started his career in the Irish pointing field.

Snowy Evening had one run in an Irish point for Mary Doyle and ran very well in defeat. He was always prominent and was left in front at 5 out, an advantage he held until being headed by Monbeg Park at the last and he couldn't match that rival on the run in, being beaten by three lengths. Back in third was Zaidi who has since won a maiden.

That was division one of a maiden where the first three in the other division were all subsequently sold for £300k+ and I think Snowy Evening put up a performance that was as good as they achieved. The third from the other division, Master Chewy, has since been narrowly beaten in a bumper while the fifth, Record High, won a bumper last weekend.

The way that Snowy Evening travelled suggests he will have the speed for a bumper and his action suggests that the better ground today will be more suitable for him than what he raced on in his point.

There is a slight concern over his wind but if he can repeat the level he ran to in his point I think he has a good chance in this race and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.

Green on debut at Ayr

Carlisle 16:30: Cowboy Cooper 0.5pt e/w 35/1

At a much bigger price, I think Cowboy Cooper's chance has been overlooked by the market given he showed some promise on debut at Ayr.

He raced in midfield from the off and was still travelling well turning the final bend a few lengths off the leaders before being pushed along early in the home straight. He ran green and edged left under pressure and looked like he might drop out but he eventually got the idea of what he was supposed to be doing and finished strongly into seventh.

The winner finished third in a Grade 2 bumper next time while the third wasn't far behind Maximilian on his next start and the fifth and sixth have both won over hurdles since.

I think the stiff finish at this track will suit Cowboy Cooper so although it might only be in the longer term over further that he shows his true ability, I think he's overpriced and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.