Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a handicap chasing debutant at Fakenham

Return to front running tactics would help on handicap debut

Fakenham 14:22: Radetzky March 1pt win 6/1

This is a weak novices' handicap chase but I think one of the runners has the potential to show far more now going handicapping.

Radetzky March showed a fairly good level of ability in Irish points for Tom Keating while looking in need of a sharper test.

He joined Laura Morgan after that and ran fairly well in two bumpers at Hexham and Southwell, getting into a battle with Ceolwulf in the second of those which left both vulnerable late on.

He's shown very little in three starts over hurdles but he's been held up in all three starts and worn a hood on two occasions.

The hood comes off today which I'm hoping is a sign that they are going to make the running today in a race where he may be able to do that without facing too much pressure.

The ability that Radetzky March showed in points and bumper suggests that a rating of 77 could underplay his ability and he looks to have a good chance in a race of this quality.

There is a concern that his jumping didn't always hold up in the closing stages in points and it might be that he's a weak finisher but I think he's overpriced in a race of this quality and any 5/1 or bigger appeals.

Showed good level of ability on the flat in France

Fairyhouse 14:45: Weddell Sea 1pt win 16/1

It's no surprise that HMS Seahorse is an odds-on favourite for this race given the strength of his form but there's a hurdling newcomer who I think could be more of a danger than the market suggests if he takes to the jumping game.

Weddell Sea failed to win in ten starts in France for Andre Fabre but received a rating that is the equivalent of 79 despite looking to lack the turn of foot that's needed to truly excel on the flat in that country.

He chased home three horses who subsequently picked up black type on his first start as a three-year-old at Fontainebleau and often ran well in handicaps after that, the only disappointments coming when badly hampered at Saint-Cloud and being badly positioned at Chantilly.

Weddell Sea was then bought for 95,000gns at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and makes his first start for his new connections and over hurdles today.

There is the unknown over how well he will jump but I thought he looked the type who could develop into a good hurdler given the attributes he showed on the flat in France and I think the market has overlooked his chance. Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

Consistent performer over the past few seasons

Ludlow 16:00: Green Winter 0.5pt e/w 16/1

Pont Aven is favourite for this hunter chase and justifiably so given the ability he showed for Willie Mullins and on his two point runs so far for these connections after being bought for £30,000. I think he will cope with this trip but there is a concern over his jumping going back under rules given how badly he's jumped at times in the past.

It's no surprise that there's been early market support for Solomon Grey as he could be the biggest danger if showing his best but there is a slight concern over how quiet the yard has been so far this season in points.

Meanwhile, James Ridley's horses have had a good start to the season and I think Green Winter could run better than his price suggests in this despite a concern that the track is sharper than ideal for him.

He's a thorough stayer and has run consistently to a good level in recent seasons including when chasing home Shantou Flyer on his first start of the 2019/20 season and when beating Dolphin Square at Huntingdon on his most recent outing in May.

This track may not be ideal for him but Bletchley Castle is likely to set a strong pace so that may counter that to some extent and turn this race into enough of a test of stamina for him.

His jumping hasn't always been great and he was a bit hesitant at times at Huntingdon but I think he's a bit overpriced given the doubts over those ahead of him in the market and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.

Reliable performer at this track

Ludlow 16:00: Bletchley Castle 0.5pt e/w 22/1

The aforementioned Bletchley Castle is the other selection in this race and he ran well over C&D last time on ground that may have been a bit softer than ideal for him.

As always, he went out in front and set a good pace. He was joined at 3 out and wasn't being given a hard time approaching the last before he was hampered by a faller and eventually finished fourth.

He finished only three quarters of a length behind Not That Fuisse that day and I think he has a good chance of reversing that form with the going stick suggesting that this is slightly quicker ground today and he may have been in need of the run a little on his first start after 237 days off.

I expect that he will have the chance to try to make all again as Green Winter wouldn't want to get into a battle for the lead with him and many of his other rivals are often hold up types and/or questionable stayers. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.