Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes a rules newcomer at Southwell

Potential for significant improvement on bare form

Southwell 13:55: Tikitov 0.5pt e/w 22/1

On the bare form of his two runs in point to points, Tikitov would appear to have no chance on his rules debut in this bumper but he showed a bit of promise on debut and I think he could be better than the bare form suggests.

He looked green at Horseheath and raced towards the back of the field before making a bit of headway on the long run to 5 out. He got in tight to 4 out in seventh and was pushed along after. He closed into fifth soon after but stumbled on the path and lost some momentum before dropping away prior to 3 out and being pulled up.

On his latest run at Barbury he made a bad mistake at the first fence on the final circuit and then lost ground early in the back straight before being pulled up.

Tikitov clearly has to improve plenty from that bare form to have a chance today but the lack of obstacles will be a positive for his chance and I think this sharper test will suit too having not seen out the trip at Horseheath on debut.

Of course there's always the chance that he just doesn't have much ability and will run poorly but a few of the Rowley horses have disappointed in maidens, either as a start to their career or after running well in PTP bumpers, before showing more over sharper trips under rules and hopefully Tikitov can be another of those. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.