Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes a mare returning to hurdling

Ludlow
Our racing expert has one selection on Monday

Rhys Williams has analysed Monday's racing and has one selection at Ludlow...

"Her chase mark was dropped 4lb for that run and I think it’s generous that the handicapper has dropped her hurdles rating in line with that given her jumping clearly let her down over fences."

Hurdles rating dropped in line with chase mark

Ludlow 13:30: Will Victory 1pt win 17/2

Miranda may outclass this field but I think one of her rivals is capable of bouncing back after a string of poor results and could be more of a danger than the market suggests.

Will Victory started her career in France and showed some ability on the flat before winning both starts over hurdles at Aix-les-Bains and Clairefontaine.

She was bought to join Charlie Mann after her win at Clairefontaine and ran very well on her first start for him at Newbury when beaten half a length by Gran Luna, conceding 8lb to that rival.

She was stepped up to Listed company for her next start over the same C&D and she was still travelling strongly when reaching for 3 out and falling.

Will Victory ran well in defeat when second in a Listed race at Taunton next time but she was completely outclassed in the Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and she looked to have had enough for the season and found the ground quick enough when running badly over 2m4½f on her final start of last season.

Following Charlie Mann's retirement, she joined Richard Newland and made her first start for him at Fontwell in a match against Nikap. Will Victory's jumping lacked fluency throughout and the ground was probably on the quick side for her and she was never a danger to her only rival.

Her chase mark was dropped 4lb for that run and I think it's generous that the handicapper has dropped her hurdles rating in line with that given her jumping clearly let her down over fences. The forecast rain this morning will be no issue for her and I think the drop back to a sharp two miles could suit too.

It is possible that she's had a problem that means she won't be as good as she was at her best last season or she may want a strong pace to chase but her best performances for Mann and in France show she can be better than a rating of 120 and any 15/2 or bigger appeals.

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2021

Staked: 433.50pts
Returned: 576.14pts
P/L: +142.64pts

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