Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams likes a French import at Carlisle

Given lenient looking opening mark in Britain

Carlisle 13:35: Gine Sacre 2pt win 5/1

There has been a significant change this national hunt season to the way that ex-French horses are being rated by the handicapper which has generally led to far more realistic ratings being given than in the past. However, there has been the occasional case of leniency and I think that Gine Sacre could be another of those.

She's been given a rating of 102 and while that looks fair on what she achieved in three starts over hurdles, I thought she showed a level of ability on her last start over fences in France that suggests she could be a fair bit better than that rating.

Poor jumping had often held her back over fences prior to that run, including when third at Dieppe on her previous start, but she jumped much better at Auteuil and that allowed her true ability to come out in the result. Having initially raced in midfield, she made headway early on to track the leaders and then jumped to the front at 4 out. She got in a bit tight to 2 out and was narrowly headed approaching the last where she made another small error. She battled on well on the run in but could only finish a close third.

The first two home in that race, Hextrawel Du Porto and Happydenuo, have gone on to be placed in handicaps at Auteuil off marks that would likely see them be given ratings in the 120s in Britain, while the filly who was challenging her at 2 out when she fell has since run well in a conditions race at Auteuil.

This was a big step up on what Gine Sacre had shown in the past and I think that was due to her finally putting together a good round of jumping. She was also with connections in France who have always tended to bring their horses on very steadily so there could be more improvement to come from her.

She was since bought for €26,000 at the large dispersal of the owner's horses and now makes her first start for Pauline Robson. This track is a different test for Gine Sacre than those she's been running at in France and it may be that she will ideally want a bit further but she has the potential to be so well handicapped if repeating her final run in France that she could be far too good for her rivals anyway and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.

Overlooked on back of hurdling runs

Wolverhampton 15:55: Army Of One 1pt win 25/1

Army Of One was a selection in this column when running at Thirsk earlier this year and on her return to the flat and first start for Mitchell Hunt I think she's been overlooked by the market again.

She was in the care of Mick Appleby when running at Thirsk and she ran with promise that day. Held up early on, she gradually dropped back to race in a share of last place turning down the back straight and was still there leaving it. She had only one rival behind her turning into the home straight and was angled widest of all to make her effort. She found plenty for pressure and ran on well but was closest at the finish, beaten 1¾ lengths in sixth.

She ran only once more for Appleby when fourth at Nottingham in very testing ground over 1m2f and I think the shorter trip and ground was against her that day.

Army Of One was then moved to Richard Newland and ran ok for him in four races over hurdles while suggesting that jumping wasn't going to be the discipline where she showed her best.

Having been led out unsold at £4,500 at the Goffs UK September Sale she was bought privately to join Mitchell Hunt and now has her first start for him in a far more suitable race than the majority she's run in since leaving Germany.

Based on what she showed in Germany and at Thirsk, I think she could be better than a rating of 59 and she has the additional benefit of having Ellie MacKenzie in the saddle being able to claim 3lb in an apprentice race.

It might be that a track like Kempton would be a more suitable all weather track for her but in a race that may not be overly strongly run I'm hoping she will be sent forward from stall 9 to race handily and I think she can run better than her price suggests. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.