Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams is predicting a Fahey winner at Thirsk

Very green on debut

Ffos Las 14:10: Dawn Vega 1pt win 12/1

Frequent Flyer sets the standard in this novice race after a good second over C&D last time but it's a horse who finished behind him on debut at Newbury who appeals at the prices.

Dawn Vega finished just over two lengths behind Frequent Flyer that day but he was very green and has the potential to significantly improve on that today. He was shaken along after a few strides and showed his inexperience through the early stages. He dropped to the back of the field and continued to be encouraged along at halfway and he was only able to make any headway very late on to finish tenth.

He looked clueless throughout the race so he did well to beat four rivals in what has turned out to be a strong race. The third, fifth and sixth won maidens/novice races next time and the eighth has since won a nursery off 70. His action also suggests that the softer ground shouldn't be an issue for him.

There is a slight concern that the yard has been quiet of late and Dawn Vega has shortened in the market this morning but I think he was put in far too big to start with and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Reapplication of cheekpieces to help

Thirsk 17:05: The Predictor 1pt win 7/2

The Predictor finished behind market leader, Levitate, last time at Haydock but I think he has a good chance to reverse that form this afternoon with cheekpieces going back on.

They were first applied three starts ago at Redcar when he got absolutely no run in the closing stages. He tracked the leaders on the rail from the off and was still there three furlongs out but from that point it was a nightmare for Tony Hamilton as he couldn't get out and even when he did he still got blocked by Satanic Moon on a couple of occasions and The Predictor could only stay on late to finish third.

The cheekpieces were left on next time as he stepped up to 2m½f at Doncaster and again he tracked the leader early on. This time he had plenty of room in the home straight and he got into a battle with Mostly Cloudy from two furlongs out but that rival just got the better of him by a head with the pair finishing seven lengths clear of the rest. That was a very good effort against a fast-improving stayer who is now rated 18lb higher than he was that day.

The Predictor finished well held at Haydock last time but the cheekpieces weren't on that day and after racing at the head of the chasing pack behind the runaway leader he dropped away late on.

The cheekpieces are back on today and he could have more to come off a 3lb higher mark than when narrowly beaten at Doncaster. He also looks likely to have a good pace to track which will help as he has raced a bit keenly early on at times.

It may turn out that one of the other two three-year-olds is open to more improvement but I think The Predictor should be favourite on the strength of the Doncaster run and any 3/1 or bigger appeals.

Positive jockey switch

Down Royal 17:15: Annaparnell 0.5pt win 100/1

Annaparnell has been well held in two starts under rules and failed to complete on her only start in a point but I think she's shown enough ability to suggest she shouldn't be quite such a huge price in a mares maiden hurdle severely lacking strength in depth.

She made her debut in a bumper at Galway last year and she raced keenly under restraint at the back of the field. She was briefly shaken along to make headway towards the end of the back straight and then had to be steadied turning out of the back straight as she raced on to the heels of those ahead but once coming under pressure three furlongs out, she quickly dropped away.

She was off the track for 262 days after that before reappearing in a mares maiden at Loughanmore. She raced keenly and opened up a clear lead but fell at 6 out.

Annaparnell returned to racing under rules at Sligo last time in a bumper and ran well for a long way. She raced keenly in front early on and went clear of the field along with Glendars Mahler. Annaparnell moved away from that rival turning the bend going out on to the final circuit but she was joined by that rival turning out of the back straight and she had little left in the home straight, dropping away to finish ninth.

There is a positive jockey switch today with Sam Ewing taking over and riding one handily in a maiden hurdle is always helpful for a horse's chance so hopefully they will look to do the same again today.

It might be that she is just a very weak finisher as she's dropped away quickly on both starts in bumpers or it might be that her chance will come in low grade handicaps in future but she's shown enough ability to suggest she shouldn't be a triple-figure price in a race of this quality. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.