Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has an 80/1 NAP at Southwell

• Given negative ride on return

• Can improve on second start after long break

• Rhys Williams thinks Bay Of Naples is overpriced at Southwell

Second start after long break

Southwell 19:30: Bay Of Naples 0.5pt e/w 80/1

Zealot could be too good for this field running under a penalty for his comfortable Kempton victory but he looks likely to face more pressure for the lead this evening. If that happens and a good pace is set, there's an outsider who I think could run better than his huge price suggests.

Bay Of Naples returned from a 403-day absence when running over C&D earlier this month and he shaped quite well in finishing seventh. Having broken well, it was a puzzling decision to restrain him to race at the back of the field considering he's previously won over further when ridden handily.

He was still in last turning into the home straight and was shaken along to make progress. He made some headway under only a hands and heels ride to finish a close seventh, beaten 3½ lengths, without ever looking like challenging for victory.

That was an encouraging return to action from Bay Of Naples on his first start after a long break and his start after a wind op. It's reasonable to think that he will be fitter for that outing and that he may receive a stronger ride having had that comeback run.

The potential for a good pace will also suit him as he needs a good test at this trip and they may choose to try to ride him a bit handier if breaking well tonight.

There is a concern that this is another building block for a return to racing over further and he may still be in need of the run or that he will lack the necessary pace if they don't go quick up front but I think he's overpriced considering he wasn't far behind the current third favourite last time and any 40/1 or bigger appeals.