Our resident tipster has analysed Tuesday's racing and has three selections at Market Rasen...
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Opening mark looks lenient
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Better ground to suit
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Lipa K is overpriced at Market Rasen
Could be a class above the opposition
Market Rasen 14:15: Lipa K 1pt win 9/4
Lipa K heads the weights for this 0-100 handicap hurdle and I think he can prove himself to be a class above this grade on his handicap debut.
He started his career in Ireland with Eoin McCarthy and won a good ground bumper on debut at Killarney for him, travelling strongly before holding on late to win by half-a-length.
He was subsequently bought by Evan Williams for 75,000 guineas. He showed a bit of ability on debut in a good novices' hurdle at Chepstow before running poorly at Sedgefield. He bounced back from that on his latest outing at Leicester where he wasn't given an overly hard ride in the very testing conditions to finish sixth.
That was a promising run on ground that was completely unsuitable for Lipa K and, while there will still be a little cut in the ground today, I expect these conditions to bring improvement from him.
The ability he showed that day and in his bumper suggests that he could be a fair bit better than his opening mark of 100 and there's nothing among the opposition that looks particularly well handicapped.
It might be that he's just the type who doesn't find much under pressure but I'm hopeful that he's a class above these rivals and any 2/1 or bigger appeals.
Return to right-handed track to suit
Market Rasen 15:15: Gwencily Berbas 1pt win 11/1
Gwencily Berbas' mark has been on the slide this season following a wind op but I think today's circumstances give him a better chance to arrest that decline than the market suggests.
He ran well for a long way in the London National two starts ago when he moved into a share of second leaving the back straight. He was still in contention at the Pond Fence before being unable to go with Quick Wave and then weakening on the run in.
He ran well for a long way again on his latest start at Warwick. He was held up early on and travelled strongly in first time blinkers. He made headway into third when he was slow at five out and after jumping three out he couldn't go with the leading pair and eventually finished fourth.
The ground was more testing than the official description that day, which I think didn't suit. He often jumped out to his right so I think the return to a right-handed track and the better ground today could see him in a better light.
There is a worry that he might just be a weak finisher and will once again travel for a long way before dropping away late on. But I think he's overpriced in a race of this quality and any 9/1 or bigger appeals.
Experienced jockey takes over
Market Rasen 16:45: Emorelle 1pt win 6/1
All nine of Emorelle's runs under rules so far have been with Eleanor Williams in the saddle and the mare has shown some ability. I'm hoping that with Adam Wedge on board for the first time this afternoon, there could be more to come as she makes her chasing debut.
Emorelle ran well in a handicap hurdle at Ffos Las three starts ago when she made good headway approaching three out. She got upsides Shinobi at two out before the difference in the experience of the riders told with David Bass being on the winner.
She ran poorly next time at Ludlow but bounced back last time at Ffos Las, this time over 3m, where the trip may have stretched her stamina a little.
I think Emorelle hasn't always looked the most straightforward ride so a far more experienced jockey being in the saddle could bring improvement.
This race could also be run to suit with potential competition for the lead possibly resulting in a good pace for her to close into.
There is the obvious unknown over how she will take to fences on her chasing debut but she handled point fences well enough on her only start in that sphere so that gives hope.
It may also be that she wants a bit further than this trip but, even allowing for those doubts, I think she's overpriced and any 9/2 or bigger appeals.