Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a quartet of double-figure fancies on Tuesday

Lingfield
Our racing expert has four selections on Tuesday

Our resident tipster was on the mark with a 9/1 NAP yesterday and is back today with four selections at Ayr and Lingfield.

  • Travels strongly through races

  • More suitable test than last two starts

  • Happy Boy is overpriced at Lingfield


Potential to bounce back after wind op

Ayr 13:45: Reve De Niamh 0.5pt win 25/1

Back Reve De Niamh in the 13:45 at Ayr 0.5pt win

25/1

Reve De Niamh has been tailed off in both starts in handicaps but I think that she could be capable of showing better this afternoon back on better ground and on her first start after a wind op.

She started her career with Fergal O'Brien and finished second in a bumper at Taunton on her debut before moving to Iain Jardine. She ran respectably on her first two starts over hurdles for him, the first at Sedgefield when the track didn't look to suit and then at Kelso against some good opposition.

Her form has dipped since then but I think the drop back in trip hasn't helped and neither has the very testing conditions on her latest two starts given her action suggests she wouldn't want that ground.

She's been dropped 10lb for those two poor runs in handicaps and is now back on far more suitable ground over a more suitable trip and the wind op could bring some improvement too.

It might be that she's not straightforward as she had to be ridden along early last time and has dropped herself out before staying on again so she could run poorly again but I think she's overpriced in a race of this quality given her potential for a revival and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.


Facing more suitable test

Lingfield 14:30: Happy Boy 1pt e/w 16/1

Back Happy Boy in the 14:30 at Lingfield 1pt e/w

16/1

Happy Boy hasn't built on the promise on his rules debut at Ascot in two subsequent starts but I think there are valid reasons for that and I think the market has overlooked his chance on hurdling debut.

He started his career in the Irish pointing field and made a promising debut when finishing third before being bought to join Chris Gordon.

Ascot was where he made his debut for his new yard in a bumper but raced a bit keenly under restraint at the back of the field.

He made good headway early in the home straight to be in a challenging position for a place before the effort of making that move and the early keenness took its toll and he faded into fifth.

Happy Boy has failed to build on that in two starts since but I think the heavy ground was against him at Warwick and he may have had a problem as he was off the track for nearly a year after that.

He returned in December in an all weather bumper at Lingfield and that was always likely to be an unsuitable test but he showed a bit of promise in finishing fifth and the third and fourth have won bumpers since (albeit the third was gifted one at Newcastle).

I think today's test will be more suitable for Happy Boy and this isn't an overly strong novices' hurdle.

The ability he's shown suggests he can be more competitive than the market suggests as long as he jumps adequately and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.


Looks type to take to hurdling

Lingfield 14:30: Loudspeaker 0.5pt e/w 40/1

Back Loudspeaker in the 14:30 at Lingfield 0.5pt e/w

40/1

At a bigger price in the same race, I can't let Loudspeaker go unbacked given the ability he showed on the flat for Michael Bell.

He ran well in defeat on two occasions off 72 at Beverley and Salisbury over 1m2f and 1m4f respectively and was in contention for a long way in a stronger race at Doncaster on his final start on the flat before not seeing out the 1m6f trip.

He's since been bought for 50,000gns and joined Seamus Mullins.

Physically, Loudspeaker looks the type to take to hurdling and he's a half brother to Wayward Glance who also started his career on the flat for Michael Bell before going on to win five races over obstacles.

There is the obvious unknown over how he will jump on hurdling debut and he didn't always look straightforward on the flat but in a race of this quality I think he's overpriced and any 28/1 or bigger appeals.


Sharper test to suit

Lingfield 15:35: Stop This Train 0.5pt e/w 33/1

Back Stop This Train in the 15:35 at Lingfield 0.5pt e/w

33/1

It would be no surprise if Helenn Clermont proved too good for this field now racing on more suitable ground but the market hasn't missed that while I think the chance of another ex-Irish pointer is being underestimated.

Stop This Train failed to win in four starts for Pat Rooney but showed a fairly good level of ability on the two occasions she completed.

The first of those was when she finished second to Porter In The Park when they pulled clear of the opposition entering the home straight but Stop This Train couldn't quite get to her rival while finishing further clear of the rest than the official four lengths.

On her final start in points, she looked a non-stayer when racing very handily and still being in front at 3 out before being headed on the climb to 2 out and fading after to finish sixth.

I think this shorter trip will suit Stop This Train and that could see her improve on the bare form of what she's achieved in Irish points.

It may be that she will need the run on her first start after 283 days but I think she's overpriced given the ability she's shown and any 22/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 30.50pts

Returned: 32.90pts

P/L: +2.40pts

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