Rhys Williams has analysed Thursday's racing and has a sole selection at a big price in the bumper at Limerick.
Quicker ground to bring improvement
Limerick 20:20: Killoughteen 0.5pt e/w 50/1
Given there appeared to be something wrong on debut, it would be no surprise if High City Roller proved far too good for these but the market reflects that.
The bits of money for Magic Mike last night were understandable as he showed some ability last time but I think he's now about the right price whereas there's one at a much bigger price whose chance I think has been overlooked a little.
Killoughteen was tailed off on her debut at this track in February but she's shown more promise on both starts since. At Thurles she was held up in last on the outside and was still in that position leaving the back straight for the final time. She made some headway going across the top of the course to track the leading group turning into the home straight and despite being a bit green, she kept on well to finish fourth.
She was ridden in similar fashion on her latest start in very testing conditions at Cork over 2m3f. Once again she was still in last place leaving the back straight and was detached from the main pack turning into the home straight. She couldn't get anywhere near the leaders but kept on into sixth, beaten just over twenty lengths. The third and fourth have both won bumpers since while the other three of the first five home had all shown a good level of ability previously.
Killoughteen has a good ground action so I'm hopeful that she will be far more suited to the ground this evening, which I expect won't be any worse than yielding even if they get all the forecast rain this morning.
This race is also lacking much strength in depth and looks weaker than the race she contested at Cork. It may also be that now she's on better ground, they won't ride her quite so patiently and put her at least a bit closer to the pace than has been the case at Thurles and Cork.
It may turn out that she's just been picking up the pieces late on in those two races and that when she's put into a race sooner she doesn't see out the trip but I think she's overpriced in a race of this quality and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.