Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 33/1 NAP at Exeter

• Mark dropped significantly

• Point runs show some ability still there

• Not Another Muddle is overpriced at Exeter

Mark dropped significantly since last run under rules

Exeter 14:45: Not Another Muddle 1pt win 33/1

Not Another Muddle hasn't been seen under rules since March 2021 and his mark has been on the slide since the end of the 2018/19 season but I think the market could have underestimated his chance this afternoon.

Since last running under rules he's had two starts in Ladies Opens for trainer/ride Alison Rountree whose only two rides have been on this horse.

They finished last of four on Not Another Muddle's first run at Ampton when likely in need of the run and managed to beat two rivals when finishing third at Fakenham. In both races, he was up against some good quality Open horses so those runs suggest that Not Another Muddle retained some ability last season.

It was encouraging to see a sign of that ability as his form had been on the decline under rules prior to that although he did show a bit of promise at Sandown when shaping better than the margin beaten suggests behind No Getaway having dropped away quickly from turning into the home straight.

Due to his absence from the track, Not Another Muddle's rating has been dropped to 112 and he drops back into a class 4 handicap for the first time since winning a novice handicap chase at Leicester in January 2018.

There is a concern that his jumping became a significant problem under rules so that could let him down again today and he began to finish very weakly so it might be that the slightly steadier pace in points has covered that up but in a race of this quality I think he's worth taking a chance on at a big price and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.