Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 28/1 NAP at Exeter

• Proven in very testing conditions

• Mark dropped 6lb for long absence

• Rhys says Gio's Girl overpriced at Exeter

Suited by conditions far more than most

Exeter 14:10: Gio's Girl 1pt win 28/1

The ground will be very testing at Exeter this afternoon with more rain falling on top of already heavy ground.

The market quickly latched on to that suiting Bellamy's Grey as the big prices about him soon disappeared but I think there's another mudlark who is still overpriced despite shortening a little this morning.

Gio's Girl is returning from an absence of 729 days but if she can show anything like the best of her hurdling form then she has a good chance off a mark of 97 in this contest.

She started life in points and showed ability in that sphere, winning on debut before finishing second in two Restricteds. However, it was when switched to hurdling in late 2020 that she took a step forward when finishing second in two novice hurdles at Exeter and Uttoxeter.

When finishing second at this track, she was held up and her jumping wasn't fluent. She was still in last of the remaining seven runners at the last in the back straight and seemed likely to be well beaten turning the final bend when under pressure in sixth. But she stayed on strongly on the climb to the line and was only beaten five lengths in second despite not being given an overly hard time.

She was ridden much handier next time at Uttoxeter when racing in a close second from the off before going to the front jumping three out. She looked to be going best on the run to two out before she was joined and eventually headed at the last by Wouldubewell.

Gio's Girl tried to rally on the run-in but couldn't quite get back to that rival and was beaten three-quarters-of-a-length.

Gio's Girl subsequently finished fifth on her handicap debut at Hereford off 104 but I'm not sure that track suited her. I think the return to a galloping track in very testing ground today gives her a chance to show her best on this return from a long break. It's a positive that Lorcan Williams retains the ride.

It might be that Gio's Girl doesn't retain the ability she showed previously or that she will need the run after that break. But she's one of very few in this race who are proven in the conditions and most of the others are at the head of the market. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.