Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 20/1 NAP at Carlisle

Hood coming off to spark improvement

Carlisle 18:15: Ribtide 1pt win 20/1

Ribtide hasn't been able to put in a significant challenge on either handicap start so far but he showed promise in both and I think the hood coming off for the first time tonight could bring improvement from him.

Both handicap runs have come over six furlongs at Thirsk. On the first of those, he was dropped out at the back of the group down the middle of the track and was last of the field at halfway.

He was still travelling well and Barry McHugh tried to make progress on him two furlongs out but his path was blocked at every turn. He eventually got a clear run half a furlong out but by that time his chance had gone and he finished twelfth.

They went back to the same C&D later in the month and again he was held up but on this occasion he wasn't travelling too well and had to be nudged along after a couple of furlongs to keep in touch with the pack. He lacked the turn of foot of his rivals late on and couldn't get into contention, while looking a bit awkward under pressure, and finished ninth.

I think the switch to a stiff track could suit Ribtide and his last run suggests that he had relaxed too much in a hood so the removal of that could generate improvement too.

He's been dropped 5lb in those two runs and it may help if they go back to riding him a bit handier, as they did when he finished second at Newcastle, as there's a chance this may not be overly strongly run.

He hasn't looked too straightforward under pressure so it might be that will often be a case of a horse who promises more than he delivers but in a race of this quality I think he's overpriced and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.